Conference Presentation, Panel, Fireside Chat
Stability vs. Growth: Unintended Consequences of Post-Crisis Financial Regulations
- Optimizing current regulatory rules is expected to enhance financial system efficiency and risk appropriateness without compromising safety, though cross-border harmonization remains a persistent hurdle.
- A hard Brexit scenario without LCH recognition would likely cause significant market fragmentation, reduced netting and compression efficiency, and lower pension fund returns.
- Continued regulatory tit-for-tat interventions are projected to hinder efficient capital movement across borders, posing a threat to economic growth.
- Reviving the Capital Markets Union is considered essential for the EU to avoid growth stagnation caused by a regulatory framework overly reliant on banks.
- The US administration's application of first principles to regulation is anticipated to drive further changes implemented via new legislation or executive branch actions.
- Regulatory fragmentation and lack of coordination between US agencies like the SEC and CFTC may force conservative compliance interpretations, leading to liquidity illiquidity effects.
- Post-crisis reforms are expected to continue having uneven impacts across jurisdictions, with divergent experiences observed in Italy, Germany, and the UK.
- The heavy regulatory emphasis on asset management and investment banking within the EU may impede adequate support for the non-bank finance sector.
- Pension funds and asset managers will need to effectively manage non-cleared margin risk outside clearinghouses using risk-appropriate calibrations.
- The SEC is expected to revisit its over-the-counter derivatives framework and pursue harmonized rules with the CFTC to address a lack of progress.
- A Treasury shift toward evaluating activities rather than entity designations is anticipated to help the Financial Stability Oversight Council combat regulatory fragmentation.
- The US Treasury is expected to continue removing regulations that fail rigorous cost-benefit analysis or no longer address existing problems.
- Lack of cross-border harmonization and regulatory fragmentation is predicted to threaten growth for global businesses navigating overlapping regimes in the UK, Europe, and the US.
- The excessive prescription and detail within MiFID II is expected to be a priority for assessment and evaluation by the next European Commission.
- The SEC's "no action relief" letters regarding MiFID II were designed to secure approximately 30 months to understand consequences before taking collateral action.
- The outcome of the UK's withdrawal agreement is expected to have significant consequences for transparency and liquidity, necessitating a recalibration of international rules and equivalency determinations.
- The European Commission's shift away from mutual recognition and equivalence frameworks is expected to face challenges despite similar calls from US officials.
- The financial industry is projected to increasingly adopt FinTech, automation, and technology to optimize compliance costs and innovate.
- Regulators are beginning to establish innovation offices, such as Lab CFTC and the SEC Office of Innovation, to facilitate AI and machine learning solutions.
- Firms that fail to hire talent to disrupt internal processes or develop proprietary technology solutions are expected to fall behind in the long term.
- Market competition is expected to drive institutions to optimize processes through technology to avoid the long-term costs associated with hiring personnel to manage short-term regulatory issues.