Conference Presentation, Panel
Tapping Into Asia's Longevity Market
- Median age in major Asian economies is projected to rise between 2015 and 2050, with current figures likely underestimating longevity due to scientific innovations enabling spans covering current, children's, and grandchildren's lifetimes.
- By mid-century, the global population over 60 is forecast to reach 2.1 billion, with conservative estimates suggesting China will exceed the U.S. population in this demographic, while the 60-plus group may outnumber children and teenagers globally.
- The $15 trillion market for the 60-plus demographic could double, potentially constituting the world's third-largest economy after the U.S. and China if product services for those 50 and over are included.
- Japan, Korea, and China are experiencing rapid population aging, with emerging markets like Thailand and Cambodia facing significant strain on pension schemes, public health, and caregiver availability over the next 10 to 15 years.
- Without policy changes, S&P forecasts a rise in speculative grade ratings from 10% to 25% and significant sovereign rating downgrades over the next 50 years due to debt growth and unbalanced budgets.
- Dementia cases are expected to quadruple by 2030, and without a shift from sick care to proactive health, healthcare costs could explode, while social isolation increases risks of mortality and physical health issues for older adults.
- Healthcare financing challenges include an expected expansion of morbidity, a decreasing caregiver workforce, and the need to balance rising expectations in emerging economies against the unfunded programs seen in advanced economies.
- Companies are expected to see opportunities in adapting product designs for older demographics, such as a 10% growth potential for items addressing changes in body shape and skin, alongside innovations in skin health for infection prevention and falls prevention.
- Strategic shifts in government and finance include curtailing healthcare costs through pharmaceutical reductions and private sector transfers, with balanced budgets achievable faster if action begins now.
- The intersection of demographic change and innovation is identified as a major global opportunity for investors, despite currently limited investment vehicles in the aging sector in the US, Asia, and Europe.
- Corporate strategies involve leveraging existing infrastructure for delivery of nutritional supplements, providing on-demand caregiver services, and co-locating generations in housing models to address isolation and care needs.
- Intergenerational workforces are expected to outperform same-age cohorts, though 61% of U.S. workers with aging parents report workplace productivity impacts, such as late arrivals and declined promotions.
- Societal dynamics are shifting with older Asians increasingly financially supporting their children, while autonomous vehicles are expected to resolve driving cessation issues for the elderly within a generation.