Fireside Chat, Interview
The American Century Quietly Ended – Hugh White
- The risk of nuclear war is projected to re-emerge centrally in the near future, with a predicted persistence or escalation of Russian nuclear use if current US non-retaliation dynamics continue.
- China is expected to remain the largest economy globally by purchasing power parity and continue growing, though growth rates will not return to the 10% annual levels seen during its industrialization phase; it is projected to deny the US any prospect of conventional military victory and will not dominate all of Eurasia.
- A conflict over Taiwan is forecast to result in either an American defeat or a nuclear exchange, with Taiwan considered indefensible against China and likely to become disorganized or subordinated to Beijing.
- The United States faces a strategic dichotomy in any crisis with China between engaging in war or retreating, creating a risk that a president might make the wrong call to initiate conflict despite a strategy of stepping back.
- Donald Trump is anticipated to be the next US president or to define the Republican party, with specific concerns regarding a potential low capacity to make correct strategic decisions during a crisis.
- Future geopolitical landscapes are predicted to include Ukraine's subordination to Russia, while Japan and South Korea are expected to acquire independent nuclear capabilities to avoid subordination to China.
- Europe is expected to cohere strategically as an independent great power, requiring political transformation to counter Russia and focusing on missile and drone capabilities rather than fifth-generation fighter aircraft production.
- The US is expected to remain an extraordinarily secure and powerful state within a multipolar global order, though its foreign policy establishment will continue struggling with the transition from unipolar primacy.
- Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) may enhance the US capacity to inflict massive damage on China, but this is not expected to deprive China of the ability to inflict similarly huge damage on the United States.