Interview, Other
The big gag: Hong Kong’s crackdown on freedom
- The US startup boom is projected to sustain momentum beyond the 2020-2021 pandemic surge, characterized by a shift toward AI-focused tech companies and geographic dispersion across cities including Greenville, Boise, Provo, and Providence, rather than concentration in Silicon Valley.
- Entrepreneurship is expected to remain broadly based due to a tight job market that provides a safety net for failed ventures, with significant economic dividends from these innovations anticipated not until the end of the current decade, following an efficiency percolation pattern similar to the 1980s through the mid-1990s.
- A primary risk to the sustainability of the US startup boom is identified as higher interest rates potentially causing a sharp decline in venture capital funding, although large venture capitalists may retain capital reserves known as "dry powder."
- In Hong Kong, the implementation of Article 23 is expected to likely extinguish remaining judicial independence, while government imposition and new security laws are forecast to align local political freedom more closely with mainland China.
- Legal and social conditions in Hong Kong are expected to reflect continued "strangulation of dissent" and the removal of Tiananmen Square-related memories, with a prevailing atmosphere of "quiet resignation" and fear during periods such as the Tiananmen anniversary, despite acquittals in the Hong Kong 47 trial which the government has signaled it will appeal.