Apr 29, 2015, 7:30 PM ETPanel, Conference Presentation

The Blue Economy

Global fisheries have passed "peak harvest" approximately 10 years ago, marking a decline in yield despite expanded global reach since 1951.
Over 4 billion people rely on ocean fish as a critical protein source, with fisheries contributing approximately $270 billion to global GDP.
The ocean supports 260 million jobs globally, representing 4% of the total world population.
Current estimates value the global maritime economy at $4.5 trillion, though panelists note this is likely a significant underestimate due to poor data collection.
90% of global international trade and 99% of intercontinental internet traffic are carried via sea and undersea cables, respectively.
The US blue economy is estimated at $1.5 trillion annually, a figure described by panelists as a probable underestimate given the difficulty in capturing all marine economic activity.
Eighty percent of current maritime economic output comes from only four industries: oil and gas, trade/shipping, fishing, and recreation/tourism.
A significant portion of ocean potential remains untapped, including deep-sea mining (containing more rare earth minerals than land) and bioprospecting (marine species show 100-fold more tumor-active compounds than terrestrial species).
Oceans currently absorb roughly 25% of atmospheric carbon dioxide, a service not fully accounted for in standard climate economic models.
Only 9% of marine species have been scientifically described, leaving vast potential for discovery and economic exploitation.

The California sea bass, rockfish, and cod fishery, declared a federal disaster in 2000, has recovered to feed 17 million Americans for a full year.
Reforms in the Gulf of Mexico led to a 300% increase in red snapper populations and a 23% rise in dockside profits within a few years.
In Belize, fishery reforms reduced illegal fishing by 60% in a single year and triggered double-digit percentage increases in reef fish populations.
3,000 fishermen in Belize now demand the implementation of these sustainable reforms nationwide.
The core mechanism for successful reform is the establishment of stable, predictable property rights (territorial use rights) for individual fishermen or communities.
Allocating catch rights allows fishermen to spread out harvesting schedules, avoid market gluts, and sell fresh fish year-round, increasing profitability even with reduced initial catch volumes.
A new model predicts that implementing reforms in 12 specific governments could increase fish populations by 50% within the next 10 years.
Current data indicates that 7% of countries have already reformed fisheries, while approximately 60% are primed for reform with high upside potential.

XPRIZE plans to launch at least three additional ocean-related prizes to incentivize breakthroughs in data, stewardship, and access.
The US currently spends approximately 90 times more on space exploration than ocean exploration.
XPRIZE is awarding a $2 million Wendy Schmidt Ocean Health XPRIZE to develop breakthrough pH sensors to monitor ocean acidification.
Five finalists for the Ocean Health XPRIZE will be tested in the North Pacific, requiring sensors to function at depths of 3,000 meters (10,000 feet).
AltaSea is developing a 35-acre multi-tenant nonprofit campus in Los Angeles featuring a business hub, science research hub, and education hub.
The AltaSea business cluster is scheduled to open in June of next year with 120,000 square feet of waterfront space for blue economy companies.
Partnerships between environmental groups and research universities (e.g., UCSB, University of Washington) are generating models to identify investment hotspots for fishery growth.
Private sector interest in ocean mapping is growing, with companies like Esri shifting focus from urban to ocean mapping to identify economic opportunities.

60% of the world's oceans are Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) under national jurisdiction, while 40% are high seas regulated by international bodies.
The US is not a signatory to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, complicating global governance frameworks.
Panelists advocate for marine spatial planning (zoning) at the national level as a precursor to effective international governance.
Governance challenges are exacerbated by a lack of capacity in developing nations to implement complex regulatory frameworks for sustainable fisheries.
High Seas governance currently involves approximately 40 different international organizations, creating a fragmented regulatory environment.
Panelists suggest that "tragedy of the commons" issues are most acute within national EEZs where open access rules prevail.
Investment in sustainable aquaculture is identified as the most immediate and known investment opportunity to meet growing global protein demand.
The Blue Bottom Line concept asserts that sustainability must be viewed as an upfront cost that drives long-term profitability and risk mitigation.
Public, private, and philanthropic investment is required to fund infrastructure for accountability, registry systems, and research.

The primary bottleneck identified for the blue economy is the lack of private investment capital willing to capitalize on sustainable ocean opportunities.
A secondary bottleneck is the lack of public knowledge and data regarding ocean dynamics, which hinders informed decision-making.
Regulatory courage is cited as a critical need; governments must be willing to enact systemic shifts from open access to rights-based management.
Climate change is creating unpredictability in ocean dynamics, including the potential collapse of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, affecting global agriculture and tourism.
Sea-level rise and extreme weather events like Hurricane Sandy and storm surges in Tonga and Kiribati are creating immediate displacement risks that require resilient infrastructure planning.
By 2040-2050, panelists envision a future where the "unknown" nature of the 95% unmapped ocean floor yields massive new economic sectors.
One visionary prediction suggests a future where marine biologist entrepreneurs outnumber astronauts in the coming decades.
Sustainable aquaculture is projected to play a central role in feeding a growing global population, provided it avoids the environmental devastation of current industrial shrimp farming.