Interview, Fireside Chat
The Bond Market May Be the Stock Market's Biggest Risk
- Interest rate markets anticipate approximately four rate increases, potentially slightly more, by year-end.
- Hyperscaler capital expenditure is forecast to surge from roughly $150 billion in 2023 to approximately $1.3 trillion in the upcoming year.
- Earnings growth is expected to decelerate from 25-30% to a 10-12% range, maintaining double-digit growth but constituting a meaningful slowdown that could trigger investor calibration.
- S&P 500 returns are projected to follow a lower growth gradient from current levels while remaining net positive.
- Bond and stock market directions are anticipated to rely on the upcoming Friday payroll data.
- Japanese equities resembling the Topix index are identified as a preferred trade for the next phase, driven by AI, re-industrialization, and defense policies.
- Standard disclaimers and liability exclusions from Goldman Sachs affiliates note that past performance does not guarantee future results and no liability is accepted for forward-looking statement accuracy.