Conference Presentation, Panel, Fireside Chat
The City for All Ages: Harnessing the Promise of Longevity
Milken InstituteJames Anderson, Dan Buettner, Carol Coletta, Rodney Slater, Jan Vapaavuori, Jim Anderson
- Global and US demographics are projected to shift significantly, with 2024 marking the first year the over-65 population exceeds those under age five, while the US share of residents aged 65 and older is expected to rise from approximately 15% to 21% within the next decade and reach 25% by 2060.
- Specific regional forecasts indicate that Los Angeles's population over 65 will double from 1.1 million to 2.1 million over the next 20 years, while the global share of people affected by municipal policies is anticipated to increase from 54% to 70% within a 20-year period.
- Policy and innovation plans include the implementation of the "power nine" longevity recipe, a Blue Zone certification program targeting 30% of local institutions like schools and restaurants over five years, and the formation of policy, certification, and individual squads within cities to aggregate best practices.
- Civic asset management strategies aim to increase conversation distance by 50% through active management, foster socioeconomic mixing, and facilitate intergenerational housing where youth walk with elderly residents, alongside evidence-based policies to limit fast-food licenses.
- Urban planning and infrastructure proposals involve comprehensive approaches that integrate housing, jobs, and transit to create functional cities, leveraging 5G and automation to potentially convert parking into parks, and utilizing virtual nursing concepts to save over 85% of home care costs.
- Financial and behavioral predictions suggest that cities can achieve significant health outcomes, such as BMI drops and reduced smoking, within five years of signing a Blue Zone pledge, while long-term trends predict the US senior population may end in poverty if community engagement and support systems are not established.
- Risk factors include strained cash-strapped local government systems, the potential for older voters to resist necessary lifestyle changes due to established habits, and the inadequacy of current resource collection methods as vehicle efficiency improves.
- International examples from Helsinki, Finland, Japan, and South Korea highlight strategies for early aging preparation, including reducing healthcare costs through home care prioritization, with expectations that 80% of those aged 85 and older will remain at home within 10 years.
- Long-term outlooks indicate that leaders will continue aggregating quality-of-life policies over the next 50 to 100 years, focusing on trust and equality as key international correlates to well-being, and that cities prioritizing pedestrians over cars will likely remain the happiest globally.