Interview, Fireside Chat
The Divorce Expert: 86% Of People Who Divorce Remarry! Why Sex Is Causing Divorces!
- James Sexton predicts that 70% to 75% of marriages will ultimately fail, comprising approximately 56% of couples who divorce and an additional 20% who remain together due to misery or financial constraints.
- He anticipates that among those who divorce, 86% will remarry within five years, while society continues to marry because the perceived "prize" of connection is viewed as worth the high risk of failure.
- A generational shift is expected among individuals in their mid-twenties to mid-thirties, where the adoption of prenuptial agreements is projected to be five times higher than rates from 10, 15, or 25 years ago due to a more pragmatic relationship view.
- Sexton forecasts that the legal landscape of marriage will evolve, citing examples such as the 2016 change in alimony tax deductibility and the eventual alignment of divorce rates for same-sex couples with those of heterosexual couples, though the specific direction remains uncertain.
- The "soulmate" ideology is identified as a primary driver for industry growth and future divorce cases, as it establishes unrealistic perfection standards that lead to dissatisfaction and prevent partners from accepting the impermanent, "chapter-based" nature of relationships.
- Current trends indicate a high volume of relationship breakdowns stemming from ethical non-monogamy attempts, infidelity driven by the desire for variety, and the comparison of real relationships to idealized rom-com narratives.
- Social media "performative" culture is expected to persist, creating delusions where couples lie about happiness and compare edited highlights to their internal realities, masking underlying unhappiness.
- Financial dynamics are predicted to significantly impact marital stability, particularly noting that a man losing his job often leads to disastrous consequences, while a woman losing her job typically does not; additionally, hidden debts are frequently revealed only upon divorce.
- Sexton expects the future divorce practice to involve a higher volume of high-conflict cases requiring aggressive intervention, alongside a prediction that he will continue seeing high volumes of infidelity and job-loss-related separations.
- Specific future risks include the potential for extreme decisions such as murder by individuals feeling trapped without an exit strategy, and the continued prevalence of debt structures that are underestimated until a divorce reveals the true net worth.
- Despite these risks, the speaker anticipates that individuals will continue to love and marry, accepting the inevitability of loss because the joy of connection outweighs the pain, while the "soulmate" myth persists as a convenient excuse for failure.