Conference Presentation, Keynote
The End of the Beginning
- The transition from internet connectivity to usage defines the next 20 years, with expectations that harder markets will undergo more significant changes than previous sectors.
- Gas stations are predicted to transform or disappear over the next 20 years in a shift comparable to or larger than U.S. e-commerce, while over $1 trillion in annual spending on cars, parts, and maintenance is expected to change or relocate over the next 10 to 20 years.
- Disputing claims that Google and Facebook are topping out, the outlook anticipates a dramatic shift in U.S. retail rents toward advertising and vice versa, driven by a need to address the U.S.'s massive excess of retail square footage within the next 10 years.
- Online grocery purchasing is expected to accelerate in the USA to catch up with other nations, facilitating a broader financial shift where money moves from advertising to marketing as consumers adopt previously "insane" online categories like fashion, glasses, and cosmetics.
- Tesla is forecasted to maintain its lead over other premium U.S. manufacturers, with total opportunities expanding across cars, software, and electric sectors, while autonomous vehicles are expected to unbundle the journey into different vehicle types that function and travel differently than current models.
- If autonomous vehicles alter time spent inside cars, investment opportunities in alcohol and TV are suggested, while esports is predicted to continue growing to a size equivalent to local U.S. sports, alongside a fundamental shift in attention away from traditional TV due to mobile phone penetration in the living room.
- Trillion-dollar fintech capital pools are expected to be addressed by software despite skepticism, targeting the unbanked and underbanked populations through mobile and internet solutions rather than traditional paper or cards over the next 10 to 20 years.
- Mobile payment value observed in China is expected to spread globally, supported by new building blocks that allow for unbundling services from traditional conglomerates.
- Machine learning is anticipated to enable massive-scale prediction of medical events like heart attacks and identify data patterns invisible to humans, while cryptocurrency is expected to facilitate the creation of decentralized, permissionless networks with native trust and value exchange.
- A market reset is expected whenever fundamental technological changes shake the industry, with future ventures anticipated for leaders like Jeff Bezos over the next 20 years.