Conference Presentation, Fireside Chat, Panel
The European Opportunity | Global Conference 2026
Milken InstituteGillian Tett, Martin Blessing, Hendrik Brandis, Thomas Buberl, Pascal Cagni, Anne-Christine Champion, Michele Giddens
- Current Sentiment Gap: A prevailing US perception characterizes Europe as overregulated, fragmented, and lacking a tech sector, whereas European leaders and business leaders describe the US as facing similar or worse issues, emphasizing that Europe offers significant, underappreciated business opportunities.
- German Investment Reboot: The German government is committing to reversing 25 years of underinvestment in defense and infrastructure via a newly created €500 billion special investment facility, though it acknowledges that private capital is required to meet the full capital need.
- German Social Reforms: The German cabinet has initiated health insurance reforms to ensure long-term sustainability, with corporate tax cuts (from 28%) already decided and individual tax and pension reforms under discussion.
- Pension System Shift: Germany is moving from a pay-as-you-go system to a funded pension model, evidenced by the introduction of a "kids' account" providing €1,500 per child (ages 6–18) for tax-free investment until retirement to deepen equity market participation.
- French Investment Pipeline: France reports over 1,800 investment projects piling up annually, attributing success to a cultural shift in the software environment that has increased the youth entrepreneurship rate from 3% to 60–70%.
- French Tech Growth Metrics: European unicorns are valued at approximately $900 billion, adding $14 billion in value per month, with France uniquely positioned to supply the energy and data centers required for this growth.
- Data Center Infrastructure: €69 billion flowed into French data centers in the last year, while France is exporting 90 terabytes of data (80% of which goes to Germany) and utilizing the Breton AI Chip Act to secure supply chains for new chips.
- Regulatory Simplification: France is implementing a "28th regime" to simplify company creation across Europe to just a few days, aiming to reduce the administrative burden that currently hampers efficiency.
- Société Générale Market View: The cost of European fragmentation is equivalent to 45% tariffs on goods and over 100% on services; however, the organization believes capital markets lack scale rather than talent, savings, or innovation.
- Capital Flows to US: Europe maintains an annual current account balance surplus of 3% (approx. €500 billion in savings), yet €300 billion of this capital flows to the US annually due to productivity gaps and investment infrastructure limitations.
- Capital Markets Union: The realization of a European Capital Markets Union (CMU) is deemed critical; while securitization decisions have been made, transposition into national laws remains a work in progress.
- Social Contract Crisis: Leaders argue that the current social contract is unsustainable, with two-thirds of public budgets consumed by social expenditure, which is growing three times faster than inflation, making growth impossible without reform.
- Thomas Buhl's Reform Strategy: AXA CEO Thomas Buhl proposes focusing on the top 10 critical projects (like the CMU) rather than endless debate, citing the Notre Dame reconstruction and Olympic Games as examples of how "military-style" project management can bypass bureaucracy.
- Tech Scaling Gap: The Eurostoxx and S&P 500 tracked parity until 2010, after which the gap widened to 3x; removing the top 10 companies from each index shrinks this gap to 1.8x, and removing the top 50 shrinks it to zero, indicating the deficit lies in scaling companies.
- German VC Funding Disparity: The total growth funding in the German economy (€8.4 billion) pales in comparison to a single US funding round ($122 billion), highlighting a massive structural gap in mobilizing scale-up capital.
- Capital Reallocation Proposal: Early Bird Venture Capital proposes redirecting at least €300 billion from the German insurance industry and €300 billion from private savings into growth investments by altering the regulatory environment.
- Impact Economy Leadership: Bridges Fund Management identifies Europe as a global leader in "impact economies," where governments catalyze private capital for climate and social outcomes (e.g., "outcomes-based commissioning" for housing and health).
- Defense Industry Catalyst: Germany plans to build the strongest non-nuclear army in Europe, with defense funding set to triple in the coming years, creating a new universe of suppliers for dual-use goods and innovation.
- French Space and Defense: France aims to establish a sovereign satellite constellation and supply chain to rival Starlink, leveraging its position as the second-largest defense exporter with key players like Safran, Thales, and Dassault.
- AI and Industrial Integration: Martin Splitt-Blum argues that while the US may lead in Large Language Models (LLMs), Europe's strength lies in applying AI to the physical world, specifically in manufacturing and robotics for elderly care, leveraging its higher industrial production capacity.
- Generational Shift: Societe Generale notes that younger generations are increasingly interested in finance and social contracts due to better access to investment horizons, suggesting a demographic shift that could drive necessary reforms.
- UK-EU Investment Dynamics: Despite Brexit, UK-based funds like Bridges Fund Management view the UK and EU as a single economic block, investing across both regions for climate and private mitigation, though acknowledging some regulatory friction.
- Regulatory "Doge" Proposal: Hendrik Brandes suggests a "European-style Doge" to cut public employment and reduce regulatory capacity, arguing that deregulation is the fastest way to release growth potential without massive fiscal cost.
- Generational Conflict Risk: Thomas Buhl warns that a generational conflict is inevitable as young people question funding pensions for the elderly with no assets left for them, potentially forcing radical social contract changes.
- AI as a Demographic Solution: Panelists agree that taxing AI agents rather than human labor could solve the demographic burden on social systems, while the private adoption of AI by employees will drive corporate adoption rates.
- US Policy Impact: Rising US protectionism and the reluctance of European governments to rely on American tech are expected to create stronger incentives for Europe to invest in homegrown solutions and technologies.