Conference Presentation, Panel, Fireside Chat
The Future of Aerospace in California
- Space exploration is projected to mitigate Earth's pollution by shifting manufacturing and launch activities to space, with the industry potentially evolving in perception from the Wright brothers era by the end of the century.
- Virgin Galactic aims to conduct initial satellite launches and test flights in 2017, subsequently operating approximately 700 customer flights weekly and launching satellites a couple of times monthly within five years.
- California is positioned to become the global space hub, hosting small satellite startups in the Bay Area and launch operations from Mojave over the Pacific, supported by a workforce of roughly 70,000 aerospace engineers in Los Angeles.
- The industry anticipates significant technological shifts, including the adoption of additive manufacturing to reduce engine costs by 50%, the use of commercial off-the-shelf electronics with two-to-three-year lifespans, and the evolution of reusable stages for orbital transfer via solar electric and nuclear propulsion within five years.
- Commercial viability is expected to grow through a new model where companies rent launch services and retain products, with Aerojet Rocketdyne seeking to sell the AR-1 rocket supported by a $536 million government partnership.
- Workforce challenges are identified as a primary risk, including a potential "brain drain" as 75 of 200 Ace Clearwater employees approach retirement, difficulties in retaining new hires with only 5 of 14 current openings filled permanently, and a hiring cost of $5,000 per employee taking 75 days to fill.
- Economic and regulatory pressures may force migration from California, where $9,000 per employee in regulatory compliance costs and high living expenses exist, to states like New Mexico, Florida, Virginia, or the Southeastern U.S. which offer lower costs, tax incentives, and better liability protections.
- Future mission plans include the Mars 2020 rover searching for past life signs, a U.S. Air Force Space Command development of space combat capabilities, and JPL's trajectory from Mars to Europa.
- The global landscape faces a competitive crisis due to a 17% structural cost difference between the U.S. and nine major trading partners, prompting a "third offset" strategy to counter adversaries like China and Russia.
- Specialized logistics are being developed by Straight Line Aviation to transport large equipment globally in 2.5 days at one-tenth the cost of standard freight, targeting a market of 650 units for a 22-ton hybrid airship.
- JPL intends to source over 50% of its work and funding from industry suppliers and plans to integrate instruments from small satellite companies for Earth observation while relying on unique project opportunities to attract talent despite early-career retention issues.
- The aerospace sector is transitioning from a process-based approach to a product-based methodology leveraging Moore's Law, with the U.S. space program expected to maintain global standards while attracting international talent subject to defense security restrictions.
- Financial projections indicate Ace Clearwater has seen double-digit growth over the last three years with hopes to continue this trend for five years, while Virgin Galactic notes that taxes may eventually become an issue despite current pre-revenue status.