Panel, Conference Presentation
The Future of Higher Education
- Higher education institutions are predicted to transform completely within a decade, with some anticipated to disappear in their current form as the vertically integrated model of research, teaching, and credentialing may no longer sustain most universities.
- China is expected to surpass the United States as the number one economy within the next day or two according to World Bank rankings, and U.S. eminence in the world risks being lost if basic research investment is not restored.
- Federal output measures are foreseen to be mandated by the government, potentially driving unintended consequences such as professionals leaving certain professions, while current input-driven ranking systems are expected to continue distorting costs.
- Universities are urged to position themselves as disruptors to avoid being disrupted, utilizing online technology as a facilitator rather than a universal cost solution, with cross-institutional credit for prepared online classes predicted to become viable.
- Public funding for higher education is projected to remain below three percent of the state budget at the University of California system, with state support fluctuating annually and the relative position of tuition to state support having flipped over the last six years since the recession.
- A shift toward self-sufficiency through private money is deemed necessary, as excluding private capital sources is viewed as preventing the creation of a functional higher education system, while full-paying international and out-of-state students are expected to increasingly displace domestic students due to tight budgets.
- Low graduation rates for students below the upper end of the academic ladder, particularly from community colleges, are expected to remain an extraordinary problem, potentially diverting more resources to the upper end which fails to move the economy as a whole.
- Without improvements in graduation rates for lower-performing students, there is a risk of a "reverse digital divide" forming where low-income students receive degrees at home while high-income students access residential opportunities, alongside a prediction that online technology will not solve every cost issue.
- The current "social compact" regarding education as a public good in California is not expected to be restored, which could lead to pessimism for the rest of the country, while the Department of Education is anticipated to potentially ignore feedback on proposed regulations.
- A disaster is predicted if public institutions cannot survive without privatization, and the U.S. economy is expected to suffer significantly if the trend of stagnant federal research funding is not reversed.
- Panel members are expected to not remain in their current roles for more than 10 years, and universities are predicted to stop focusing on certain majors in the long run due to ranking pressures, while the highest achieving low-income students are expected to graduate at the same rate as the lowest achieving high-income student.