Panel, Fireside Chat
The Future of Mobility | Milken Institute Global Conference 2024
Milken InstituteDiane Brady, Pablo Di Si, Stella Li, Andrew Littlefair, Éric Martel, Shauna McIntyre
- Global mobility is expected to transition to electrification, though the pace depends on infrastructure availability, consumer behavior, and conflicting legislation, with a forecast that the U.S. vehicle fleet transformation will require 20 to 30 years while 300 million electric vehicles would demand 25% more electricity than current U.S. production.
- Adoption pathways are projected to vary by region and application, with Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) anticipated to be the primary adoption vehicle globally before Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) dominate, and heavy-duty transportation requiring diverse technologies like renewable natural gas, synthetic fuels, or hydrogen due to battery weight and range constraints.
- Renewable energy infrastructure must significantly expand to support electrification, with estimates suggesting 350,000 football-sized solar farms for heavy-duty truck electrification or covering 8% of global deserts to meet electricity needs, while the U.S. grid currently lacks a plan to support 300 million EVs.
- Supply chain and policy frameworks are evolving, with China demonstrating a shift from subsidy-driven to consumer-driven markets where EV penetration reached over 40% in Q1, while the U.S. faces challenges including low penetration dropping to ~7%, policy exclusions like the Inflation Reduction Act limiting Chinese vendor access, and the need for grid capacity growth of 25%.
- Aviation decarbonization relies on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), which currently supplies less than 0.5% of total fuel and would be depleted in a week at current rates, alongside innovations like the "Echo Jet" reducing emissions by 20% and solid-state batteries offering 70% of current weight, while AI forecasts spare parts for 5,000 aircraft and modulates fuel consumption.
- Battery technology advancement focuses on reducing carbon footprints and increasing energy density, with Northvolt aiming to reduce battery carbon footprint to one-tenth of the global average by 2030 and lithium metal technology achieving 50% to 70% higher energy density to enable long-range travel.
- Artificial intelligence is expected to revolutionize sectors by accelerating automotive development cycles from three years to significantly shorter timeframes, cutting manufacturing costs by half, and enabling autonomous driving through advanced vision and sensor technologies.
- Material availability and cost remain critical risks, with renewable natural gas offering a solution for 60% of the U.S. diesel market and synthetic fuels viewed as an aviation path, while high costs for advanced technology may cause consumers to retain combustion vehicles longer without regulatory intervention to ensure high carbon footprint standards for imports.
- Regional policies show divergent trajectories, with California targeting renewable generation by 2035 and heavy-duty truck electrification or conversion, while Canada sets a schedule for 20% green vehicles by 2026, and Europe seeks similar protections to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act against global imports.
- Investment opportunities are forecast across the supply chain, software, and chipset sectors, supported by initiatives like Volkswagen's transition strategy until 2032 and Bombardier dedicating 90% of R&D budget to emission reductions, alongside a $50 billion pipeline order book for battery manufacturers.
- Technical hurdles include the need for 50 to 200-mile battery range in PHEVs as a bridge technology, the requirement for 6,000 additional power plants to electrify three million heavy-duty trucks, and the challenge of balancing grid utilization which currently sits at 55% to 60% but could reach 75% with battery storage.
- Future hardware development involves a mix of technologies where solid-state batteries could be critical for aviation and electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles will drive demand for lightweighting materials, while recycling can reduce battery carbon footprints by a factor of one to ten.