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Interview, Conference Presentation

The Future of Robotic Surgery

Goldman SachsAmit Hazan, Liz
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Pandemic Impact and Recovery Trends

  • Robotic surgery volumes were heavily impacted in the second quarter due to the suspension of elective procedures.
  • Recovery has been steady month-over-month since the second quarter, reaching approximately 90% of normalized volume by July.

Current Procedural Adoption and Growth Drivers

  • Historical Progression: Adoption began with prostate cancer surgeries, followed by gynecology (specifically hysterectomies).
  • Current Drivers: General surgery is now the primary growth engine, including colorectal procedures, hernia repairs, and gallbladder removals.
  • Hard Tissue Expansion: Accelerating adoption is occurring in total knees, with lower adoption rates in hips and spine procedures.
  • Instrumentation Spectrum: Future growth is expected to shift from rigid instruments toward flexible, "snake-like" instruments capable of accessing previously unreachable body areas.

New and Emerging Application Areas

  • Soft Tissue & Endoscopy: New areas include kidney stone treatment, colonoscopy, and lung cancer diagnostics/therapeutics.
  • Imaging Enhancements:
    • Phase 2 advancements include augmented reality overlays (CT images on console) and hyperspectral imaging to visualize tissue layers.
    • Future imaging agents aim to illuminate cancer tumors for more accurate removal.
  • Analytics and Training:
    • Immediate benefits are visible in machine learning applications and virtual reality surgical training.
    • Long-term "Phase 3" developments include GPS-style computer guidance systems to verify surgical precision.

Technological Enablers and Remote Capabilities

  • 5G Impact: The rollout of 5G is viewed as critical for enabling remote surgery by eliminating the latency that currently prevents precision movements over long distances.
  • Remote Scenarios: 5G may allow surgeons in major hubs (e.g., New York) to perform procedures in distant regions.
  • Pandemic Context: The crisis is accelerating industry efforts to deploy remote capabilities to reduce the number of personnel required in operating rooms.

Market Forecasts and Penetration

  • U.S. Market Penetration: Current robotic procedure penetration is 5% (approx. 900,000 procedures annually).
  • Growth Projections (U.S.):
    • 2025: Projected to reach 3.5 million procedures (16% penetration) and a $10 billion market value.
    • 2030: Projected to reach 7 million procedures (30% penetration), with 17% of operating rooms equipped with robots and a $17 billion market value.
    • CAGR: A 10% compound annual growth rate is expected through 2030.
  • Global Market Projections:
    • 2025: Projected at $14 billion.
    • 2030: Projected at $24 billion.
    • Dominant Sectors: Growth will be led by soft tissue robotics, followed by endoluminal and heart tissue sectors.
  • Future Automation: The long-term trajectory (5–10 years) suggests a shift toward partial automation, starting with suturing and potentially evolving to an "airplane mode" where the robot executes more of the procedure while the surgeon supervises.