Statement
The future of war
- Drone warfare is projected to be a decisive factor in potential conflicts between Taiwan and China, with unmanned systems expected to become consumable commodities and outnumber human warfighters on front lines.
- Future battlefields will likely feature thousands of unmanned aerial, surface, and underwater vehicles where intelligence and autonomy serve as key differentiators, supported by satellite communications enabling target engagement within minutes rather than hours.
- Artificial intelligence is anticipated to accelerate the decision-making cycle, assist in resource planning, and process information volumes, with US Defense Department AI spending more than doubling since 2021 and NATO making heavy investments.
- Cyber warfare is predicted to complement kinetic operations by disrupting power supplies, surveillance infrastructure, and propagandistic efforts at a significantly lower cost than ballistic missiles, particularly if China employs a three-warfare doctrine during an invasion attempt.
- Despite technological advancements, the outlook acknowledges the enduring necessity of human conscription, the high risks associated with large-scale amphibious invasions like a potential Chinese move against Taiwan, and the certainty of life-changing injuries and death.
- Skepticism remains regarding AI's standalone ability to alter war outcomes due to its vulnerability in unexpected scenarios, even as capabilities derived from software and autonomous lethality in comms-denied environments are viewed as critical for future conflicts.