Conference Presentation, Panel, Statement
The Global Economy: A Conversation With Timothy Geithner, Henry Paulson and Robert Rubin
Milken InstituteTimothy Geithner, Henry Paulson, Robert Rubin, Sheryl Sandberg, Eric Garcetti, Bob Rubin, Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner
- The conference anticipates evolving attendee perspectives with a dedicated focus on women and girls, expecting increased attendance in the future, and delivering real-time online panel content and mobile app networking tools within one to two hours post-event.
- Economic outlooks project a gradual, slow, and steady U.S. recovery with unemployment substantially above official rates and stagnant real wages, while noting that global headwinds from investment slowdowns and a strengthening dollar may outweigh benefits from declining oil prices.
- Significant tail risks regarding geopolitical instability and market excesses, alongside the potential for artificial intelligence to displace conventional middle-income jobs, are highlighted as critical threats to future economic stability.
- Policymakers identify a need for fundamental shifts including new tax systems, entitlement reform, immigration reform, and the completion of trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership to address growth stagnation and labor market gaps.
- A specific emphasis is placed on gender diversity, noting that equal labor force participation could boost U.S. GDP by 5%, while warning that failure to adopt proactive diversity measures may lead to mandatory legal quotas for boards.
- Climate change is predicted to cause catastrophic and severe adverse impacts on life, with delays in action significantly reducing the ability to avoid worst-case scenarios and potentially forcing a larger government fiscal role.
- Social media is expected to play an enormous role in shaping public opinion, with its constructive potential hinging on its ability to engage Americans in recognizing the need for effective government and policy.
- Fiscal policy and entitlement reform are described as the single most important measures for economic stability, with marginal improvements in public policy predicted to yield high returns in a rapidly changing world.
- The U.S. is expected to maintain a predominant global position if it addresses domestic problems and leads by example, though the absence of such leadership risks erosion of its capacity for global stability and fairness.
- The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates when economic circumstances necessitate it, a move anticipated to be difficult, while income disparity and stagnant wages are predicted to dominate the 2016 presidential campaign agenda.
- The Milken Institute expects its research to influence policymakers globally year-round through new memberships, while the global economic slowdown and the need for China to address flawed policies and municipal debt are noted as pressing international concerns.