Interview, Podcast
The global economy in 2075: Growth slows as Asia rises
- Global population growth is projected to reach 0% over the next 50 years, with the population expected to peak at approximately 10 billion and begin declining before the end of the century, posing challenges for pension sustainability and economic growth.
- Goldman Sachs Research anticipates a long-term economic slowdown driven by demographic shifts and a decade-long decline in productivity linked to reduced globalization and trade.
- Emerging markets are forecast to capture a significantly larger share of global GDP over the next 25 to 50 years as income convergence between these regions and developed economies continues.
- China is expected to overtake the United States as the world's largest economy around 2035, maintaining a potential growth rate of roughly 4% annually, though its own population growth will slow for the next 15 to 20 years due to established demographic factors.
- India is projected to experience substantial growth over the coming decades, driven by favorable demographics and rapid productivity convergence, potentially catching up to the US and China by 2075.
- Brazil and Russia are noted as having been overestimated in past 20-year forecasts, whereas China has significantly exceeded earlier projections.
- Future long-term forecasts spanning 10, 20, 30, and 50 years aim to exclude cyclical volatility by focusing on structural trends in population, capital, and productivity to meet corporate planning needs for market share and target markets.
- Global income inequality is expected to diminish over time due to cross-country convergence, despite ongoing concerns about within-country inequality in developed economies.
- Key risks to the long-term outlook include the potential reversal of globalization driven by nationalism and protectionism, climate change impacts on low-income emerging economies, and the difficulty of forecasting productivity trends over extended horizons.