Panel, Conference Presentation
The (Global) Innovator's Dilemma: How Can Companies Keep Their Cutting Edge?
- Innovation-driven economic competitiveness is expected to rely almost entirely on the generation of new ideas, products, and systems to solve needs.
- The competitive edge of the Palo Alto ecosystem is projected to be re-evaluated in ten years regarding its ability to meet social and business needs.
- Innovation is predicted to become a mandatory executive and board agenda item for all organizations as no part of the economy can function without it.
- Leaders are expected to prioritize innovation investment and outcome monitoring rather than focusing solely on product creation.
- Organizations that recognize and reward failure are predicted to emerge as leading innovators in the future.
- Future innovation success is expected to rely on a culture where innovation is integrated into the daily activity of everyone within the organization.
- Product life cycles are expected to accelerate further, with typical app monetization periods potentially lasting only three weeks to three months.
- Companies with product life cycles that do not last 10 years are expected to face a Darwinian process where billion-dollar cash flow streams will disappear if they do not constantly reinvent.
- Organizations that fail to invest in innovation will likely be disrupted or eliminated as technology renders current business models obsolete.
- Large organizations are expected to struggle to react if new competitors emerge with a time advantage of only three to four months.
- Highly capital-intensive industries are expected to face disruption from service model innovations that bypass capital barriers in addition to product innovation.
- Robotics and automation are expected to strengthen manufacturing in the U.S. but may create a risk of massive output without a corresponding increase in jobs for the middle class.
- The future innovation wave is expected to move into robotics, automation, and the pairing of humans with machines.
- Innovation in agriculture is expected to be an overwhelming tide driven by the need to increase global food productivity, outweighing public perception risks.
- Systems dependent on a single failure mode are expected to become increasingly fragile unless designers invest in complexity and chaos theory to build resilience.
- ICT is expected to remain central to innovation discussions with the insinuation of ICT into all areas becoming quite dramatic in the near future.
- Societies are expected to face a dilemma of fragmentation if the industrialized world does not respond to emerging markets with greater productivity.
- The U.S. is expected to risk missing a window of opportunity if it does not make massive long-term investments in energy innovation comparable to those made by China.
- Gaps in long-range R&D are expected to be filled over time, though maintaining a U.S. lead requires proactive action.
- The government is expected to need to retain its role as a demanding customer to drive innovation, similar to the historical military-industrial complex.
- The U.S. innovation landscape is expected to suffer negative consequences if reduced government funding in R&D is not balanced with continued government procurement of innovations.
- Retired senior leaders are expected to provide significant value to new generations of companies through mentorship and networks.
- Women's participation in innovation is expected to require structural changes and outreach, particularly in exposing daughters to technology before age 18.
- The U.S. is expected to continue creating significant wealth through sectors like fracking, which is considered innovative if it solves a huge issue.
- Sustained innovation in large corporations is expected to require a five- to ten-year investment commitment from leadership to see results beyond the current quarter.
- Large organizations are expected to find it difficult to move ideas from the edge to the core and back out to the marketplace without a specific model for the maturity life cycle.
- Companies that view innovation as purely technical rather than an economic competitive process are expected to fail.
- Future innovation models are expected to require inspecting portfolios annually to ensure a specific percentage (e.g., 10%) is invested in disruptive new business creation.
- Companies are expected to need senior leaders specifically chartered for new business creation who look outside their "four walls" for opportunities.
- As product life cycles collapse, the importance of intellectual property protection is expected to diminish in favor of execution speed and market share maintenance.