Interview, Podcast
The human strain: can mpox be contained?
The EconomistJason Palmer, Rosie Bloor, Ora Ogambi, Benjamin Sutherland, Mitchell Dupani, Vijay Vaitiswaran
- A new mpox strain is expected to continue mutating as it spreads, potentially becoming more widespread, though the WHO currently classifies the situation as not constituting a new pandemic.
- International emergency declarations are anticipated to unlock ring-fenced funding to accelerate surveillance, testing, and vaccine approvals, facilitating faster vaccine delivery to Africa.
- Protection from mpox is expected to persist in most Westerners over age 45 due to prior smallpox vaccination, whereas collective immunity has likely waned in younger populations where the smallpox vaccine is no longer compulsory.
- The current mpox outbreak is projected to be more severe in children than in the elderly, contrasting with the age-related dynamics observed during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Russia's deployment of a nuclear weapon in orbit is expected to cause indiscriminate destruction of satellites in range, creating a "bloodbath," while radiation storms from such a detonation are predicted to persist for weeks or months, affecting satellites globally.
- Satellites designed for a ten-year lifespan are expected to fail within three to four days if exposed to radiation levels three to four orders of magnitude higher than natural cosmic background levels, a challenge that will become increasingly difficult as microchips grow smaller and more sophisticated.
- Artificial Intelligence systems by Slingshot Aerospace are expected to detect weaponized satellites or outliers by analyzing orbital data for anomalies such as unusual light reflection or maneuvering patterns.
- If Russia deploys orbiting nuclear weapons, the 1967 United Nations Outer Space Treaty is expected to be rendered a mockery.
- Energy consumption from big tech and data centers is expected to double between 2022 and 2026, with S&P projecting that AI will account for approximately 3% to 4% of total global power demand by 2030.
- Utilities may reflexively rely on natural gas plants to meet growing AI power demand due to engineer familiarity and ease of construction compared to solar or battery systems, though big tech companies may counter this by withdrawing from regions planning such infrastructure.
- Microsoft aims to be carbon negative by 2030, offsetting more emissions than its lifetime total, while a significant wave of efficiency gains in chip design and data center operations is expected to occur as AI optimizes cooling and operations.
- Despite potential marginal grid overloads in specific areas, AI is expected to be a net positive for the climate if efficiency gains are properly planned and implemented.