Interview, Fireside Chat
The Invisible Backbone of AI: Why Light Powers Intelligence | Lumentum | RAISE Summit 2026
- Fundamental infrastructure shift from copper to optics is driven by increasing speeds and the distance limitations of copper at higher data rates.
- The "scale out" optical lane market is projected to be approximately 10 times larger than the "scale across" market.
- "Scale up" optic deployments within data center racks are expected to commence by mid-2027, with backplane connectivity projected for 2028.
- The deployment volume for "scale up" optics is anticipated to reach 100 times the market size of the "scale across" phase.
- A critical shortage of indium phosphide wafers is predicted to exceed current memory shortages, compounding industry inability to service current laser demand.
- "Scale up" rack configurations may require approximately 8,000 lasers per rack, calculated as 8 lasers per light source across 1,000 light sources.
- The total laser opportunity is described in the hundreds of billions of units.
- "Scale in" applications involving optics on printed circuit boards and chip-level interconnects are expected to begin in 2029.
- Optical interconnects replacing copper between disaggregated memory and compute blocks are expected to emerge by the end of the decade.
- The "scale in" market represents a potential 1,000 times market size increase compared to previous stages.
- "Scale in" applications will utilize arrays of lower-power lasers rather than high-power single lasers.
- 400-milliwatt lasers developed for "scale up" are considered potentially viable for free-space optical communication in space with additional amplification.
- Lasers are already confirmed to be currently deployed in space.