Fireside Chat, Interview
The Kill Chain: 2025 Edition
- The author's predictions in The Kill Chain regarding the trajectory of warfare were not new discoveries but a synthesis of ideas discussed for 25 years; the primary surprise was the accelerated pace of adoption, with the defense tech ecosystem reaching the scale envisioned for the late 2020s by early 2025.
- Multiple defense technology companies founded post-2022 are now valued over $1 billion, representing a shift from a taboo Silicon Valley sector to one with "strength in numbers" and established government expectations for partnership.
- The war in Ukraine acted as the primary catalyst for the movement, transforming concepts of low-cost autonomous systems from theoretical scenarios into proven capabilities capable of destroying tanks and battleships through mass and attrition.
- Anduril's strategic focus has shifted from single product development to "all domain autonomous systems," including real weapons production, space business, and soldier-borne mission command via the acquisition of the IVAS program.
- The organization emphasizes "ideating" with the government by challenging their problem definitions and deploying IRAD (Internal Research and Development) funds to prove capabilities before seeking contracts, a strategy that earned them credibility in the space sector.
- Future production challenges for Anduril over the next five years center on delivering systems at scale, specifically low-cost cruise missiles, collaborative combat aircraft, and large autonomous undersea vehicles, with a focus on meeting quantity demands that traditional defense industry standards cannot meet.
- The company anticipates evolving from "big by defense standards" to a major player capable of fielding systems in the thousands and tens of thousands for months or years, a critical requirement for Great Power competition.
- Strategic advice to the Department of Defense includes embracing a "long game" approach that tolerates iterative failure and chaos as necessary features of rapid innovation, rather than seeking $11 billion guaranteed outcomes with zero risk.
- Government partners are increasingly motivated by a desire to replace legacy technology that fails to match commercial standards, creating a high level of enthusiasm for private sector solutions that can deliver modern capabilities.
- If updating The Kill Chain in 2025, the author would re-emphasize manufacturing and industrial base capacity as the defining features of future conflict, noting that the U.S. historical dominance was an anomaly requiring robust production to replenish losses in great power conflicts.
- The defense tech ecosystem has matured into a collaborative network where companies like Anduril, Shield, Palantir, and SpaceX now regularly partner and subcontract with one another, moving away from the isolation the author faced in the pre-2022 era.