Conference Presentation, Panel
The Known Unknowns of Election 2020
- Global political trends driven by economic anxiety, nationalism, and polarization, exemplified by Brexit and various populist movements, are expected to persist, with the US uniquely constrained to internal party conflicts rather than the rise of third parties due to the electoral college.
- The US election is projected as a highly contested contest between a solidified 40% supporting Donald Trump, a 40% supporting Hillary Clinton, and a narrow slice of genuine swing voters estimated at 8-9% (contrasting with a previously mentioned 20% model) or potentially 30 million specific demographic voters.
- Success in the 2020 election hinges on the ability to persuade middle-income, middle-aged, suburban, and ex-urban voters while simultaneously turning out approximately 94 million eligible people currently outside the political system, including downscale whites, Latinos, and Asians.
- Demographic shifts indicate that states growing older and whiter, such as Ohio, will become more difficult for Democrats to win, whereas younger, more diverse states like Colorado and Nevada will become more favorable; conversely, the population over 60 is expected to continue driving the voting economy.
- Young voters, particularly Gen Z, are predicted to be 500% more politically engaged than their parents' generation, potentially driving the 2020 presidential election turnout to its highest level in a century.
- The Democratic primary is anticipated to be unusually long and contentious, featuring approximately 700 candidates, a front-loaded calendar where 48% of delegates are chosen in the first five days, and a potential "contested convention" if no candidate secures a majority on the first ballot.
- Election outcomes in the Democratic primary will be heavily influenced by electability concerns regarding Donald Trump, with 61% of Democrats prioritizing a candidate capable of defeating him, which fuels support for figures like Joe Biden while causing others to fall behind.
- Donald Trump faces a "two-to-one problem" where the number of definite non-supporters outweighs his definite supporters, requiring a shift from base mobilization to persuasion to regain working-class and suburban voters.
- Campaign strategy will require balancing high spending to convert swing voters with a focus on economic arguments, as character-based contests are expected to result in a "jump ball" where the opposition can define the Democratic nominee.
- Technology and globalism are identified as the two dominant forces shaping the election, forcing a choice between nationalist and internationalist leaders as well as between those supporting the old economy versus the new economy.
- Voter behavior is characterized by short attention spans, with the average swing voter processing political information for only four minutes per week, necessitating disciplined messaging regarding achievements and future plans.
- A lack of trust in government institutions, including Congress and the presidency, is expected to remain a primary driver of political animus, posing a challenge to restore confidence in established democracies.
- Failure to achieve both persuasion and turnout to an extraordinary level is identified as a certain path to defeat, with the winner of the battle for a better economy expected to secure the next six presidential elections.
- The Democratic convention may result in a scenario where candidates like Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, and Bernie Sanders garner significant delegates, leading to a floor fight over the true representative of the party.
- The Republican base is expected to be inflamed by media focus on impeachment and investigations, while six out of ten independents may view the matter as settled, limiting the effectiveness of such tactics in gaining broader support.
- Economic prosperity exists despite a crisis of faith in political leadership, with the biggest national challenge identified as the loss of confidence in the President and parties rather than economic metrics.
- The Democratic Party is expected to face internal scrutiny where candidates who attack rising phenomena early may be viewed as establishment figures, while a singular character issue requires a candidate who unifies the country and opposes xenophobia.
- Candidates are expected to face social sanctions for going too negative in the Democratic primary, a dynamic distinct from the 2016 Republican primary which was driven by blind anger.
- Early polling data from previous years is not considered predictive of final results, as Democratic voters historically favor unexpected candidates in long primary cycles.
- The election is framed as a battle for the "soul of America" involving technology and globalism, where the winner is determined by the ability to balance persuasion and turnout across a fractured electorate.