Conference Presentation, Panel, Fireside Chat
The Known Unknowns of Election 2020
- Global political trends are predicted to continue toward the rise of non-traditional political parties and populist movements driven by economic anger, specifically regarding immigration and national sovereignty in Europe, Mexico, and the US, with a noted shift toward protectionism and anti-trade stances among Republican voters.
- Internal division within major US political parties is expected to intensify, described as an "absolute war" between opposing wings, while economic anxiety similar to Brexit is forecasted to propel candidates who can articulate a "vision of change" against established norms.
- Trust in government institutions is anticipated to remain at historically low levels, with Congress described as having the lowest trust ratings since 1974, a condition driven by perceptions of corruption and the belief that governments steal from the future, necessitating a re-institution of confidence as a campaign selling point.
- The upcoming presidential election is characterized as potentially the most important in a lifetime and projected to see the highest turnout in 100 years due to younger voters, though there is uncertainty regarding specific vote splits such as a 40-40-20 breakdown versus a two-to-one non-Trump majority.
- Demographic shifts are expected to influence state-level outcomes, with states like Ohio becoming older and more difficult for Democrats, while Colorado and Nevada become younger and more diverse, creating a battleground between "silicon-valued" coastal voters and "old economy" Midwest voters.
- Campaign strategies are projected to focus heavily on persuading swing voters, estimated at 20% but contested by some speakers, and targeting 94 million eligible non-voters including downscale whites and Latinos, while also needing to retain suburban voters who previously shifted support.
- The Democratic primary process is predicted to feature a large field of approximately 700 candidates, with a faster delegate selection rate where 48% of delegates could be chosen in the first few weeks, resulting in a contested convention without an early majority winner.
- A specific convention outcome is forecasted where Biden may emerge first, Sanders second, and Harris securing a significant number of delegates, potentially requiring negotiations over whether a past candidate was robbed or if the top vote-getter should win.
- Voter sentiment is described as bifurcated, with 65% of the electorate believing the country is going in the wrong direction compared to 32% who felt it was going in the right direction, driving a focus on economic defense and value-based messaging rather than impeachment talks.
- Risk factors include the potential for Democrats to fail by focusing too much on impeachment which inflames Republican bases, and for Trump to risk re-election by failing to campaign effectively or by alienating suburban and white women voters through character issues or "vulgar" behavior.
- Future election success is argued to require candidates to balance "electability" with core values, with some asserting that a candidate must unify the country and stand up to bullying without employing the "blind anger" or negative tone that characterized the 2016 Republican primary.
- Specific numerical expectations include Biden nearing 40% in polls while other candidates like Sanders remain far behind, and a predicted demographic trend where the population over age 60 grows "astronomically," keeping older voters as the primary voting academy.