Conference Presentation, Panel
The Long War Against Terrorism: A Military Perspective
Milken InstituteMatt Driscoll, John Danu, John Gallagher, Kimberly Field, General Yu, Jennifer, David Solomon
- Terrorism is expected to persist for many generations due to deep historical roots, with the conflict likely extending to the next generation and involving the speaker's own children.
- The current situation in Syria is characterized as the most complex problem faced by US Central Command in nearly 40 years, requiring a resolution strategy planned over a three-year phase with the understanding the problem must likely end in Syria.
- Instability is predicted to remain a constant feature driven by resource competition, natural disasters, regional conflicts, WMD proliferation, and the emergence of disenfranchised small groups.
- The enemy is anticipated to be an adaptive, resilient network of loosely connected non-state actors inspired by Salafi extremism with unprecedented access to information, communications, finance, and violence.
- The threat's ability to migrate into areas of weak governance and expand its reach is expected to outpace current estimates, while the enemy's worldview is identified as a deep-rooted ideology combining historical beliefs with modern adaptations offering material and social benefits.
- Predictions regarding the threat trajectory made over the last 12 years are described as having been quite wrong, prompting an anticipated paradigm shift away from purely military "us versus them" approaches toward leveraging constructive voices and social media.
- A "disrupt, dismantle, defeat" doctrine is expected to potentially fail if it does not account for the necessity of delegitimizing the enemy's worldview, creating a cycle of tactical success but perpetual conflict.
- Counter-insurgency efforts are projected to create ten new enemies for every one eliminated unless accompanied by better environmental awareness, grievance resolution, and a strategy to "listen more and partner with the majority."
- Long-term stability in Afghanistan is not expected to be maintained by the Afghan National Army alone but by the whole national security force, primarily the police, with the true test being whether Afghans can achieve reconciliation and political settlement.
- While the strategy to dismantle the AQ network is viewed as largely effective regarding the destruction of 75% of leaders over 14 years, the enemy continues to adapt, and the approach in Yemen is seen as insufficient without broader stability and good leadership.
- Resource allocation in Washington is expected to remain a struggle, with the ISIL crisis in Syria and Iraq consuming bandwidth and causing delays in other areas like Yemen.
- Despite significant financial, human, and political costs and human suffering, outputs and outcomes in Afghanistan are not keeping pace, forcing a pause on investment levels despite a deep debt of gratitude from senior Afghan leaders for infrastructure improvements.
- The US security environment is expanding to four domains: continental, air, sea, and space, now including cyber, while China is predicted to remain a significant economic influencer and peer competitor with uncertain timing for full military rise.
- Future challenges will require a "whole international government" effort rather than a purely military one, with military actions increasingly used to create space for local governance and self-determination where the option to do nothing is not viable.
- A shift to "left of the boom" activities like capacity building in Africa is deemed necessary to prevent humanitarian and medical fallout from costing the international community much more on the back end.
- Risk factors include the demerit of devaluing human capital and failing to cultivate experience through budget cuts, which could lead to the demise of the organization, as well as a global security environment worsening if the US falls below a threshold to assure allies and deter adversaries.
- Military sophistication is expected to require a move away from heavy-handed pursuit of safe havens, while the complexity of the Assad regime and lack of a clear partner in Syria make target selection difficult.
- Next year's panels plan to include more people from diverse military experiences and cultures to bridge the disconnect between the military and other sectors.
- The strategic environment in Syria is described as unstable and unpredictable with an unknown outcome, leading to a strategy of taking steps one at a time with a coherent sequencing of targets in Iraq and Syria.