The Next Big Things in Technology: A Preview

Panel Composition & Context

• Moderated by Ken Housman (entrepreneur, former board member of Abagant, and NASDAQ President's Advisory Board member).
• Panelists include: Rose Schuller (Intel IoT VP), Yobi Benjamin (former Citigroup CTO, futurist), Bo Ewald (Quantum computing expert), Arvind Sadani (former Intel Capital President), and Skip Rizzo (USC VR Lab director).
• The session aims to discuss the democratization of technologies like IoT, AI, quantum computing, and VR, focusing on economic value, resource savings, and life-saving potential.

Internet of Things (IoT) Strategy & Impact (Rose Schuller)

• McKinsey estimates IoT can generate $11 trillion in economic value, contingent on scaling beyond vertical, purpose-built technologies.
• Economic & Resource Benefits:
  • IoT enables cost savings by predicting downtime and optimizing productivity in manufacturing (e.g., instrumented pumps).
  • Malaysia Rice Pilot: Instrumented fields increased crop yields by 50% while reducing water consumption.
• Healthcare Application:
  • Instrumenting patients transforms data collection from ~10–12 samples/day (manual) to millions of samples/day for Parkinson's patients.
  • Enables personalized care prescriptions through continuous, high-volume data streams.
• Core Value Proposition: Summarized as saving money, saving resources, and saving lives.

Satellite, Robotics, & AI Capabilities (Yobi Benjamin)

• Satellite Constellation:
  • Plans to launch 8 additional satellites this year (2 currently in orbit) to image the entire planet every 4 hours.
  • Data output: 2 terabytes of fresh data daily at 25m and 2m resolution (military grade is currently restricted by law).
  • Performance: High-speed up/downstream communication capable of 6–27 gigabits per second via API access.
  • Contracts valued at $100 million over the next five years.
• Robotics:
  • Sophie: An AI-enabled robot capable of speaking fluent English, Mandarin, and Spanish with advanced facial expressions.
  • Application: Designed to teach emotional concepts (e.g., smiling) to autistic children at a scale impossible for human teachers.
• Machine-to-Machine (M2M):
  • Developing satellite-controlled drones capable of nonstop flight (e.g., San Francisco to New York) bypassing radio frequency range limits.
• Market Predictions:
  • Claims current AI models can predict capital markets with "near 100% accuracy."
  • Suggests a future of "Skynet" (autonomous machine networks) and advanced M2M communication.

Quantum Computing Fundamentals & Performance (Bo Ewald)

• Technological Shift: Moving beyond Moore's Law limitations by leveraging quantum mechanical effects: superposition, entanglement, and tunneling.
• Hardware Specifications:
  • Current quantum chips are ~1 inch in size (fingernail-sized processor within a large "skiff" box).
  • Operating Conditions: Cooled to ~15 millikelvin (colder than outer space) to achieve superconductivity.
  • Construction: Built using standard semiconductor fabs (e.g., Cypress) and custom assembly in Palo Alto.
• Computational Methodology:
  • Functions as a probabilistic optimizer searching an energy landscape (2^1000 possible solutions) for the lowest valley.
  • Requires multiple runs (10–1000 times) to sample answers and converge on the lowest energy state.
• Performance Benchmarks:
  • Google Partnership: Achieved 11,000x speedup on initial benchmarks; later achieved 100 million times speedup on specific optimization tasks.
  • Future Roadmap: Targeting a doubling of qubits every 1–2 years.
• Primary Use Cases: Optimization problems, machine learning, and Monte Carlo/sampling tasks relevant to finance.

Macro-Economic Disruption & Venture Capital (Arvind Sadani)

• Four Disruptive Elements:
  1. Clients: Emergence of mobile, data-producing devices (drones, wearables, IoT, autonomous cars).
  2. Networks: Ubiquitous, low-cost global connectivity enabling sensor deployment anywhere.
  3. Cloud: Shift from on-premise enterprise IT to accessible, scalable data centers.
  4. Analytics: Real-time processing of "humongous" data volumes.
• Secondary Disruption Risks:
  • Insurance & Body Shops: Autonomous vehicles will drastically reduce accidents, disrupting the insurance industry and collision repair business.
  • Enterprise IT: Applications written for on-premise OS environments will require complete rewriting for the cloud.
• Investment Context:
  • Intel Capital (under Sadani): Transformed into a Tier 1 VC with $3.3B invested, 528 investments, and 300 exits (2005–2015).
  • Generated 150% returns and was the third-largest cash flow producer for Intel.
  • New Venture: Sadani has launched his own fund following his departure from Intel.
• Market Outlook: Disruption will affect virtually every business; low capital barriers make it easier for startups to target incumbents.

Virtual Reality (VR) in Healthcare (Skip Rizzo)

• Clinical Applications:
  • PTSD Treatment: VR simulations of Iraq/Afghanistan used at 70 sites to help veterans process traumatic memories (showing clinical efficacy).
  • ADHD Assessment: Controlled classroom environments to test focus amidst manipulated distractions.
  • Physical Therapy: Gamified 3D motion tracking for stroke/traumatic brain injury patients to enable home-based rehab.
• Virtual Humans & Training:
  • AI Coaches: Virtual characters for veterans who prefer privacy over live providers.
  • Medical Training: "Virtual patients" allow novices to practice and fail safely before treating live humans.
  • Social Skills Training: Job interview simulations for high-functioning autism individuals, with variable interviewer "provocativeness."
• Growth Trajectory: Leveraging advancements in sensors and processing power to make VR cheaper, faster, and more ubiquitous.

Future Implications & Societal Challenges

• Economic & Employment Shifts:
  • Transportation: Autonomous vehicles may shift utilization rates from <10% to ~30%, reducing global vehicle manufacturing from 100 million to ~80 million units.
  • Job Displacement: Concerns over the elimination of the #1 US profession (driving) and the need to create new service economy roles (e.g., autonomous delivery).
• Healthcare & Longevity:
  • Cancer Elimination: Benjamin predicts cancer can be eradicated within 10 years by treating it as a "compute problem" (identifying cell variants, designing CRISPR viruses via AI).
  • Post-Disease Economy: Panelists discuss the societal implications of eliminating disease, including resource management for a "superhuman" population.
• Security & Privacy:
  • Encryption Risks: Universal quantum computers could theoretically break current encryption instantly, though current machines are not yet capable.
  • Future Security: Anticipated shift to "forward-looking" encryption schemes that would require "quantum squared" computers to break.
  • Blockchain: Viewed as a potential countermeasure by distributing compute resources to secure data integrity.
  • IoT Privacy: Every connected device (e.g., sprinklers, watches) will have payment capabilities, necessitating a fundamental rewrite of banking and currency systems.
• The Digital Divide:
  • Access Inequality: Risk of a widening gap between the "technology elite" who can leverage these tools and the general population.
  • Democratization Requirement: Success depends on making high-end tech (VR, AI, Quantum) accessible and affordable to the masses, not just niche users.

Key Forward-Looking Statements

• Timeline: Quantum computing and advanced AI are expected to move from niche to production over the next decade.
• Vision: A future where "everything has compute, everything is connected, and resources are shared," potentially eliminating disease within the lifetime of current attendees.
• Caution: Technology must be viewed as a tool for human destiny, requiring education and policy to prevent dystopian outcomes or mass unemployment.