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The next Black Death (or worse) | Most Pressing Problems
80,000 HoursPhoebe Brooks, Luisa Rodriguez, Sarah Keeling, Jacob Sacks Jones, Alice Halstead, Alex Magill, Robert Stanton, Casey Grosso, Louisa Keight, Emma Pendarves, Lucrezia Pollice, Mikey Bligh-Smith, Ell Potter, June Archbold, Kamala Hussain, Oscar Galvin, Benedict Payne, Melissa Murphy, Lola Shaw, Felix Nugee, Bella Forristal, Cody Fenwick, Kempe Gay-Brydges, Anemone Franz, Benjamin Hilton, Nik Mastroddi, Arden Koehler
- Future pandemics could exceed the severity of COVID-19, potentially killing hundreds of millions, collapsing civilization, or causing near-total extinction.
- The probability of catastrophic pandemics is plausibly higher now due to globalization, urbanization, and intensive animal farming.
- Biotechnology advances over the last century have increased the ability to make precise genetic modifications to dangerous pathogens.
- These advances may soon enable the engineering of novel pathogen strains more dangerous than anything found in nature.
- Barriers to creating terrifying biological results are expected to decrease as technology progresses.
- Artificial intelligence advancement may exacerbate the risk of biological disasters.
- The potential upper limit for the catastrophic scale of an engineered pandemic is difficult to establish given sufficient motivation, resources, and technical skill.
- There is a high expectation of worry regarding the chances of a catastrophic pandemic occurring within the next few decades.
- This threat is categorized as one of the most pressing problems faced by humanity today.
- Investments in pathogen surveillance and early warning systems can help detect and respond to new pathogens before they become full-fledged pandemics.
- Development of better and more adaptable vaccines and treatments is identified as a necessary mitigation strategy.
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions, including personal protective equipment and indoor air quality technologies, are projected to protect against a wide range of future threats.
- Policies and practices must be improved to prevent scientific research from leading accidentally or deliberately to increased death and hardship.
- Thousands of people globally, including security experts, policymakers, engineers, and designers beyond pandemic professionals, are required to address these risks.