Interview, Fireside Chat
The Next President May Control Superintelligence
- The 2028 presidential election is projected as the most significant year in history regarding AI, potentially determining the leadership responsible for the intelligence explosion.
- Society is expected to progressively delegate increasing authority to AI in criminal justice systems, with the sector eventually becoming a top-tier voting issue requiring massive political investment.
- Current societal preparation is anticipated to significantly underestimate AI capabilities, particularly if timelines shorten, necessitating legislative strategies like ENCODE's to succeed or target slower-acting regions.
- ENCODE plans to deploy extensive resources across the full stack of AI policy, adopting a philosophy of comprehensive trial and error while prioritizing coalition building to counter federal preemption and industry lobbying.
- State regulatory frameworks in California and New York are expected to build sufficient capacity to activate on short timelines if federal action is delayed, potentially influencing other states like Illinois to follow suit with third-party audits.
- Advocacy efforts face headwinds from established industry lobbyists with decades of relationships in Sacramento and Washington, though ENCODE aims to leverage diverse coalitions and internal "bright lines" to mitigate trade-offs and dilution of goals.
- Recent legislative work, such as SB 1047, is expected to create residual impacts facilitating the passage of subsequent bills like SB 53, with high-context advocates pushing for regulations covering internal deployments and secure reporting channels.
- Public opinion is shifting against AI, potentially reducing corporate willingness to oppose regulation, while ENCODE anticipates improving relationships with entities like OpenAI as employees pressure leadership to move away from bludgeoning strategies.
- Political responsiveness is predicted to rely on galvanizing events, such as a disruptive cyber attack or bioweapon, rather than arguments alone, which could cause the Overton window to expand rapidly and prompt aggressive interventions like financial liability by next year.
- The executive branch is expected to react to AI's power before the judicial and legislative branches, potentially disrupting the balance of power, prompting ENCODE to intervene and accelerate adoption within the latter two branches.
- AI advocacy is identified as a severely under-resourced and talent-constrained sector that will require increasing attention and resource allocation as the timeline for action tightens.