Panel, Other
The Next Urban Revolution: Reimagining Cities for an Aging Population
Milken InstituteNora Super, James Anderson, Julián Castro, Thomas Lantzsch, Jaana Remes, Jim Anderson, Tom Lanch, Jana, David Rockefeller Jr., Quinn, Yana Shih, Tom Hanksman Jr.
- The global population aged 60 and older is projected to outnumber children under 5 by 2020, with Los Angeles specifically expecting a 27% increase in residents aged 50+ and a 43% rise in those aged 65+ by the same year.
- Demographic shifts are predicted to profoundly impact social, welfare, and political economies over the next 10 to 20 years, driven by populations living significantly longer; for instance, 50-to-65-year-olds in Seoul are expected to live an additional 40 to 50 years.
- Economic consumption is projected to be heavily driven by the 60-plus demographic, accounting for 60% of growth in Western Europe and China, nearly half in the US, and 93% of free leisure hours in the US.
- Labor market dynamics are expected to shift as seniors remain in the workforce longer, participate in the gig economy, and serve as "elderly innovators," though US manufacturing faces daily talent losses due to retirement.
- Consumption of leisure time will likely increase participation in volunteering, work, and local political activities among the elderly, while inequality is rising, potentially leading to a larger poor elderly population alongside asset management challenges.
- Urban planning and housing must evolve to accommodate multi-generational arrangements, such as grandparents raising grandchildren, RV-based care, university towns for retirees, and the trend of boomers staying in cities post-retirement rather than leaving.
- Technology is anticipated to enhance independence and extend the capabilities of older specialists through videoconferencing and remote diagnosis, while autonomous vehicles and user-friendly digital solutions are critical for addressing transportation and adoption gaps.
- Current policy and planning efforts are not prioritizing aging, evidenced by only 3 of 330 recent challenge solutions addressing seniors, leading to warnings that leaders at federal, state, and local levels are not treating it as a priority.
- A shift from a "vulnerability mindset" to an "asset-based mindset" is required, with experts suggesting cities compete to become "early adopters" and frame aging as a productivity opportunity to spark public health urgency.
- Collective action through advanced market commitments in multiple US cities is proposed to accelerate business deployment of senior solutions, while finding common ground across generations is seen as essential for building inclusive communities.