Interview, Fireside Chat, Conference Presentation
The Scale and State of the Semiconductor Industry
- US GDP is projected to decline slightly over 6% and global GDP by 4% this year, with the semiconductor industry anticipated to decrease by approximately 10% excluding memory, driven by pandemic-related disruptions.
- Handset unit shipments are forecast to drop about 14% this year, though high adoption of 5G is still expected within the market.
- Supply chains heavily reliant on Malaysia or Singapore face risks of prolonged shutdowns, while US Bay Area equipment makers have already experienced two to four week closures, and Wuhan customers observed delays in equipment delivery, installation, and revenue recognition.
- Back-end facilities in Southeast Asia have communicated six-month lead times to customers, and companies with significant US semiconductor export exposure or China import reliance must navigate a dynamic national security and trade restriction environment.
- New regulations and proposals are creating near-term and longer-term implications, forcing companies, particularly those with major Chinese market exposure, to rethink economic models and for Chinese OEMs to adopt deliberate sourcing strategies.
- Market consolidation has intensified over the last decade, with the top ten buyers increasing their share from slightly over 30% to over 40% of global semiconductor purchases, prompting large-scale entities like Apple, Google, and Amazon to develop custom silicon.
- Advanced logic manufacturing capabilities are increasingly concentrated among three primary companies, while TSMC has announced plans to establish a new advanced foundry facility in Arizona.