Interview
The Semiconductor Shortage of 2021
- The current semiconductor supply crunch originated primarily from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic rather than geopolitical tensions.
- In April and May 2020, year-over-year revenues in the automotive sector fell by over 20% per month due to demand softness.
- Initial manufacturing disruptions occurred as companies managed essential worker designations and implemented new safety protocols on factory floors.
- Average industry lead times have reached 14 weeks, exceeding the 13-week threshold generally considered the "danger zone."
- Supply constraints are most acute for "trailing edge" or older technologies, specifically microcontrollers and power devices manufactured on 28nm and 40nm nodes.
- Manufacturers face limited incentives to invest in new capacity for these older nodes because production relies on fully depreciated equipment, keeping cost structures variable.
- Adding new industry capacity is a slow process; constructing a new factory from scratch typically takes two years.
- Even if factory floor space is available, installing equipment and bringing it online requires an additional six months or more.
- Toyota is cited as a key case study, having survived the shortage better than most peers by leveraging resource planning established after the 2011 Fukushima disaster.
- While some geopolitical factors like US regulatory restrictions on Huawei have reduced their handset volumes, these are considered a minor contributor compared to pandemic-driven supply issues.
- Industry consensus suggests the supply shortage will persist through the end of the year.
- Price increases are already being observed, particularly for microcontrollers and other critical components.
- A significant forward-looking risk involves order overshoot, as companies engage in double-ordering to stockpile inventory and avoid future shortages.
- The market faces a potential V-shaped demand recovery that may be complicated by these stockpiling behaviors, risking a future oversupply.