The State of Apps with Olivia Moore

2022 App Store Performance Overview

• Apple reported cumulative developer payouts of $320 billion since the App Store's 2008 launch.
• Analysis of 2022 data (via appfollow.io) revealed a shift toward social apps dominating the top spots.
• The top three most frequent #1 apps were BeReal, TikTok, and Gas, all of which are social products.
• Three of the top five apps in 2022 were created less than two years prior, contrasting with 2021 where the top five included fintech and utility apps like Zoom.

Top 5 Apps of 2022 by Days at #1

• BeReal: A social app featuring front and back cameras active for one hour daily to encourage authentic, uncurated sharing.
• TikTok: Dominated the #2 spot as an established giant in the short-form video space.
• Gas: An anonymous compliment app targeting high schoolers; released in late 2022 but reached #3 for the year.
• LiveIn: A widget app allowing users to share candid photos directly to friends' home screens.
• Locket Widget: A widget app that gained traction following Apple's iOS 16 updates enabling lock screen widgets.

Market Dynamics and Barriers to Entry

• Reaching #1 typically requires approximately 100,000 daily downloads on iOS in the US market.
• Most apps that hit #1 remained there for only one to five days; over 50% of #1 apps spent less than five days total on the chart.
• Retention is now harder than acquisition; viral hits on TikTok drive initial downloads, but products must have strong network effects to sustain usage.
• Traditional "feed-based" social networks like Instagram and Snapchat did not appear in the top five, likely due to US user base saturation.

Key Trends Driving 2022 Success

• Widget Economy: Apps capitalized on iOS 16's lock screen widget functionality (e.g., Locket, LiveIn).
• Invisible AI: Rise of apps using backend AI for personalization rather than user-facing AI features (e.g., TikTok's algorithm, Temu).
• AI Art & Avatars: Models like Stable Diffusion enabled mobile apps to generate avatars; Lensa led this category in late 2022.
• Anonymous Social: A recurring trend (e.g., Gas) driven by FOMO and the desire for peer validation among teenagers.
• Monetization Shift: Apps are monetizing directly early in their lifecycle rather than relying solely on long-term ad revenue.
  • Lensa generated an estimated $20 million in a few weeks via in-app avatar purchases.
  • Gas generated $6 million in revenue with 10 million downloads prior to acquisition.
• Subscription Evolution: Pricing models are polarizing into "luxury" tiers (e.g., Tinder testing $500 plans) or B2B partnerships (e.g., Calm partnering with insurers).

Real-World Events Driving Viral Spikes

• 7-Eleven: Hits #1 annually on July 11th due to "Free Slurpee Day" requiring app usage.
• McDonald's: Hit #1 on July 13th for "Free Fry Day."
• Starlink: Reached #1 in September following the launch of 52 satellites.
• NOAA Climate App: Reached #1 during Hurricane Ian in the fall.
• Period Tracking Apps: Saw surges in downloads following the overturning of Roe v. Wade due to data privacy concerns.
• Talking Ben the Dog: A 2012 kids' educational app resurged to #1 after a YouTuber (15M subs) made it a viral meme by debating serious topics with the dog.

2023 Forecasts and Future Trends

• Temu: Identified as a leading candidate for 2023; a Chinese commerce app that has been #1 for 22 of the first 25 days, utilizing gamified group buying and referral incentives.
• AI Strategy: Move toward "invisible AI" that drives personalization without explicit user interaction, increasing stickiness.
• Virality Management: Startups may begin limiting viral growth (e.g., archiving trending TikTok videos) to prevent overwhelming servers and retaining users poorly.
• Vertical Social Networks: Growth of apps focused on specific interests (e.g., Strava, Goodreads, Squishmallow trackers) rather than broad social feeds.
• Geographic Diversification: The share of US-developed startups reaching #1 dropped from 85% in 2021 to 45% in 2022; international apps (e.g., BeReal from France, Travel Boast from Russia) are rising due to TikTok's democratization of discovery.
• Physical-Digital Interplay: Apps increasingly drive traffic to physical businesses (e.g., TikTok food reviews boosting small restaurants) or enhance real-world relationships (e.g., widget apps for long-distance couples).

Longevity Case Study: Subway Surfers

• Launched in 2012, this game recently cracked the top 10 most downloaded apps worldwide.
• Saw a 50% download increase (300 million downloads) in the last year due to Gen Z using the game as a "split screen" background for TikTok videos to retain viewer attention.
• Sustained success driven by bi-weekly "World Tour" graphics updates and strong social media presence (7M YouTube subs, 6M TikTok subs).

Founder Recommendations for 2023

• Focus Areas: Olivia Moore suggests building apps around pet ownership, citing the trend of pets as "children" and a recession-proof market.
• Monetization Logic: Successful apps should generate shareable assets to fuel organic growth on TikTok/Instagram while securing early revenue streams.
• Timing: The opportunity to build and monetize an app quickly and retire with millions of dollars is described as historically high, citing the Gas acquisition model.
• Distribution: Leverage TikTok for viral discovery but prepare to manage user retention beyond the initial viral spike.