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The Surprising Implications of an Aging Population
- Global median age is projected to rise from 43 to 47 in developed economies and from 30 to 40 in emerging economies over the next 50 years.
- The working-age ratio (ages 15–64) in developed economies is expected to decline from 63% to 57% over the next 50 years.
- Global population is forecast to grow from 8 billion to 10 billion within 50 years, peaking around 2075 before gradually declining, a revision downward from previous UN estimates of 11 billion by 2100.
- If fertility remains at 2.1 and life expectancy increases, the implied replacement rate for population stabilization is estimated at 1.5 to 1.6.
- A 15% reduction in the working-age ratio in developed economies is anticipated to reduce employment and GDP by a similar margin if employment rates drop proportionally.
- Extending working lives is identified as the only long-term solution for challenges related to increased longevity and aging.
- Effective working lives in developed economies are projected to increase significantly, building on a 12% rise observed since 2000.
- Demand for goods and services may not shift toward those typically associated with "old people" as aging involves extending all life stages proportionally rather than just prolonging old age.
- Mortality rates are expected to continue decreasing rather than remaining flat, reflecting a long-term trend contrary to the assumption of constant mortality.
- The actual increase in life expectancy is expected to exceed current official data estimates.
- Increased female workforce participation after childbirth and the reduced importance of manual labor are key drivers contributing to longer effective working lives.
- Society as a whole is expected to manage economic transitions related to aging relatively well.