The Weekend Intelligence: Gaza, after the dust settles (republished)

Current Status of Gaza:

• Nine months into the conflict, 60% of all buildings in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed, with satellite imagery showing "organized and complete destruction" leaving the territory flat.
• The death toll has climbed to approximately 40,000 according to the Gaza Health Ministry.
• The humanitarian crisis is severe, described by locals as having "more spilled blood than drinkable water," with food restrictions, targeted hospital evacuations, and a collapsed banking system where cigarettes have become a primary currency.
• Lawlessness is escalating in the absence of a police force; armed criminal gangs and Hamas are filling security vacuums, leading experts to warn Gaza could become "Mogadishu on the Med."

Planning for Post-Conflict Governance:

• United States Position: The US is actively pushing for the return of the Palestinian Authority (PA) to run security and civil affairs, though it acknowledges the PA is weak, has not held elections since 2006, and lacks legitimacy in Gaza.
• Palestinian Authority Stance: PA Prime Minister Mohamed Mustafa and new Justice Minister Shabal al-Zayim assert a responsibility to govern Gaza, planning to retrain and deploy local civil police (including those formerly vetted under Hamas) to maintain order, provided Fatah and Hamas agree.
• Israeli Government Position: The current Israeli cabinet under Netanyahu has no public "day after" plan; officials have expressed skepticism about the PA and are instead exploring informal arrangements with local clans or families, though experts deem this unlikely to succeed.
• Alternative Israeli Proposals:
  • Centre-Right (Yoaz Hendel/Naftali Bennett): Propose "Islands of Hope" or "Gaza 2.0," involving military sieges to clear areas, the temporary removal of civilians, and the creation of zones run by competent regional players or appointed local leaders, explicitly excluding the PA.
  • Far-Right (Simcha Rothman): Rejects any talk of a "day after," advocating instead for a "denazification" program with full Israeli military control, implying indefinite occupation and opposition to Palestinian statehood.

Security Challenges and Risks:

• Hamas' Role: Hamas officials maintain they will endure and retain political relevance; they have not committed to stepping back from security roles, despite the destruction.
• Israeli Security Control: Despite nine months of ground invasion and bombing, the IDF does not have full control of the strip, with rockets still falling near military convoys approximately twice daily.
• Arab State Participation: While some Arab nations (e.g., UAE, Jordan) express willingness to fund reconstruction or join stabilisation forces, they have no appetite to deploy troops on the ground due to political risks, lack of local policing training, and the requirement for an Israeli commitment to a two-state solution.
• Potential for Continued Conflict: Experts warn that without a credible security plan within the "golden hour" following a ceasefire, society could collapse, leading to perpetual conflict and long-term instability.

Humanitarian and Logistical Failures:

• Floating Pier Failure: The US-built $200 million floating pier was decommissioned after three weeks due to structural issues and inefficiency; critics argue it prioritized military logistics over aid delivery compared to opening land crossings.
• Aid Distribution: Aid convoys face constant looting and attacks; aid workers rely on negotiation rather than armed security, and local social networks are the only reliable means of distribution in some areas.
• Civilian Trauma: Local staff report that civilians lack the energy to evacuate, families are separated, and basic survival needs (food, water, medicine) are unmet due to Israeli military movements and restrictions.

Political Atmosphere in Israel:

• Domestic Pressure: 75% of Israelis want Prime Minister Netanyahu to resign; the public is divided between demands for hostage retrieval and calls for continued military operations.
• Political Polarization: The traditional Israeli center-left is marginalized in the Knesset, while right-wing factions have moved to the heart of the government, with no consensus on whether the war aims are solely military or involve long-term territorial control.
• Hostage Narrative: The public discourse in Israel focuses almost exclusively on hostages and Israeli security, with little mention of Gazan civilian suffering or post-war governance in media and protests.

Long-Term Outlook:

• Palestinian Perspective: Local leaders warn that without a genuine political solution, Gaza will become the world's largest refugee and internally displaced persons (IDP) camp, potentially lasting decades.
• Reconstruction Hurdles: Rebuilding will require clearing 40 million tons of rubble, fixing sanitation systems, and feeding 2 million people, but experts argue this is impossible without a legitimate security apparatus and political agreement.
• Strategic Pessimism: The report concludes that the lack of agreement between moderate voices on both sides, combined with incompatible visions of the future and the scale of destruction, makes a successful post-war outcome "vanishingly unlikely."