The World Ahead 2022: five stories to watch out for

Geopolitical Power Shifts: China vs. United States

• China's 20th Party Congress in November 2022 is expected to confirm Xi Jinping's third term, amassing power levels unmatched since Mao Zedong.
• The Communist Party frames Xi's centralized rule as a rival "center of gravity" to a declining US-led democratic system.
• US mid-term elections in November 2022 are projected to result in Democrats losing a slim majority in both the House and Senate, creating a divided government.
• Beijing anticipates using the 2022 Winter Olympics in February and its economic resilience to showcase the legitimacy of its autocratic model over Western democracy.
• Chinese state narratives portray the US system as dysfunctional and unable to ensure basic public safety, reinforcing a "post-American age" narrative.

The Hybrid Work Model and Labor Equity

• Hybrid work is establishing as the new normal in 2022, though a significant divergence exists between employee and employer preferences.
• American employees desire to work from home approximately 50% of the week, whereas employers prefer a 4:1 ratio favoring office presence.
• Surveys indicate 85% of women and 21% of white men want to return to the office full-time, while only 3% of Black knowledge workers in the US desire full-time office return.
• "Presenteeism bias" poses a risk where employees physically present in the office are perceived as more dedicated than remote workers, potentially undoing diversity gains.
• Companies face the challenge of balancing remote flexibility with the loss of in-person creativity and networking if hybrid models are poorly implemented.

The Metaverse and Virtual Economies

• Tech giants are investing heavily in the metaverse, with Meta (formerly Facebook) committing over $10 billion and Epic Games (Fortnite) pledging $1 billion for development.
• Microsoft and Meta have launched virtual workspaces, such as Horizon Workrooms, to facilitate lifelike online collaboration beyond standard video grids.
• In 2021, over one million fans attended a virtual concert by Ariana Grande in Fortnite, signaling mainstream appetite for 3D social interaction.
• The metaverse is evolving from a niche concept into a broader audience platform for gaming, socializing, and professional collaboration in 2022.
• Skepticism remains that some corporate pivots, such as Meta's rebranding, may be attempts to distract from existing controversies.

African Fashion and Global Markets

• The 2022 release of the Black Panther sequel is expected to drive global mainstream interest in African fashion and designers.
• African brands like Ghana-based AAKS are capitalizing on sustainability trends through ethical sourcing and artisanal production methods.
• The Black Lives Matter movement has increased demand for Black-owned businesses, with some brands reporting sales growth of up to 700% in 2020.
• Established fashion hubs in Lagos, Nairobi, and Johannesburg are expanding, supported by a post-pandemic surge in e-commerce adoption.
• Designers are leveraging direct-to-consumer digital channels to showcase work globally, reducing reliance on traditional Western distribution networks.

The Resurgence of the Space Race

• China aims to complete its Tiangong space station by the end of 2022, positioning it as the primary space infrastructure after the International Space Station retires in 2024.
• India is scheduled to attempt a robotic lunar landing in late 2022, following a previous unsuccessful mission, to demonstrate global power status.
• 2022 is projected to see a historic crossover where more people travel to space as paying tourists than as government astronauts.
• Competition in space tourism is intensifying between Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin, and SpaceX, with all three companies having successfully launched passengers in 2021.
• Geopolitical rivalry extends to entertainment, with Russia having already shot the first movie in orbit featuring actor Yulia Peresild, ahead of similar US plans involving Tom Cruise.