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The World Ahead 2023: five stories to watch out for
- India surpasses China as the world's most populous nation: The UN predicts India's population will overtake China's on April 14, 2023, as China's population peaks while India's continues to grow.
- India possesses the world's largest working-age population, creating potential for a "demographic dividend" similar to China's post-1979 economic expansion, with growth forecast to continue until around 2050.
- Success hinges on overcoming structural barriers: approximately 90% of Indian jobs are informal and insecure, lacking robust social security or pension schemes.
- Female labor participation is critically low at 20%; educated women face employment discrimination in male-dominated sectors like logistics and repairs, while men benefit from diverse roles.
- The "Make in India" campaign has attracted foreign investment, such as Apple's plan to manufacture the iPhone 14 locally, yet the sector faces hurdles including a labor force with only 3% formal training and widespread malnutrition impairing cognitive and physical development.
- 2023 emerges as a pivotal year for psychedelic-assisted medical therapies: Three psychedelic drugs are in Phase III clinical trials for mental health conditions, with potential regulatory approval imminent.
- MDMA-assisted therapy is being evaluated for PTSD; in a Phase III study, 67% of participants no longer met PTSD criteria after three doses combined with psychotherapy.
- If approved, it would mark the first regulatory authorization of a psychedelic for a mental health condition, offering options for the 12 million Americans suffering from PTSD.
- Psilocybin (magic mushrooms) is in a global Phase III trial for treatment-resistant depression, where 20% of patients achieved remission after 12 weeks.
- Ketamine-assisted therapy shows promise for alcohol use disorder, with an 86% abstinence rate observed six months post-treatment in recent studies.
- MDMA-assisted therapy is being evaluated for PTSD; in a Phase III study, 67% of participants no longer met PTSD criteria after three doses combined with psychotherapy.
- Japan's monetary policy shift threatens global financial stability: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains an outlier by maintaining negative interest rates (-0.1%) and capping 10-year bond yields, a stance that historically defied predictions of a rate hike ("widowmaker" trade).
- In December 2022, the BoJ unexpectedly widened its 10-year bond yield cap from 0.25% to 0.5%, destabilizing markets due to the widening interest rate gap with major economies like the US (which raised rates to 4.5% by end-2022).
- The disparity has weakened the yen, increasing import costs and inflation, while Japan's status as the world's largest creditor country means any rapid rate normalization could trigger a global recession.
- 2023 risks include the BoJ ditching its bond yield cap or raising short-term rates, which could spook investors given Japan's high public debt levels and the potential for a destabilizing repricing of its bonds.
- The fashion industry pivots toward a circular economy to combat waste: Major brands including Tommy Hilfiger, Hugo Boss, and LVMH are launching repair and resale services to address the environmental impact of fast fashion.
- The industry currently discards textiles at a rate of one rubbish truck per second, prompting a shift to a "circular economy" where products are remade, repaired, or recycled.
- Startups like Save Your Wardrobe and corporate initiatives aim to make circular business models (resale, rental, repair) represent 23% of the global fashion industry by 2030, a $700 billion opportunity.
- Critics warn of "greenwashing," where brands use repair services to incentivize new sales rather than reducing overall consumption or transitioning their linear business models.
- Repatriation of colonial artifacts gains momentum in 2023: The year marks significant political and cultural events related to the return of looted items, coinciding with the coronation of King Charles III and the controversy surrounding the Koh-i-Noor diamond.
- Glasgow Life Museums will return seven Indian artifacts to New Delhi and Benin bronzes to Nigeria, citing the moral obligation to return items held without legal or ethical title.
- The Benin bronzes were looted during the 1897 British invasion, and their return is viewed by campaigners as essential to restoring African cultural history and identity.
- The Koh-i-Noor diamond, set to potentially be worn by Queen Camilla at the British coronation, remains a "diplomatic grenade" due to its disputed acquisition from India in 1849.
- Negotiations regarding the return of the Parthenon Marbles from the British Museum are ongoing, though legal barriers often turn the decision into a political matter; similar requests are expected from Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, and other nations globally.
- Glasgow Life Museums will return seven Indian artifacts to New Delhi and Benin bronzes to Nigeria, citing the moral obligation to return items held without legal or ethical title.