Panel
The World in Turmoil
- Non-state actors like ISIS are predicted to continue daily recruitment from countries in Europe, Africa, and elsewhere, with at least 55 American citizens, including teenagers, already recruited.
- Military solutions, including over 3,500 US strikes and the provision of 20,000 pounds of weapons to Kurdish forces, are viewed as insufficient to achieve victory without addressing legitimacy, governance, economic opportunity, and ideology.
- A military victory in Iraq is contingent upon establishing legitimate and effective Sunni representation to prevent communities from resorting to violence due to a lack of political stake.
- The international community must engage "eyeball to eyeball" with Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia to prevent the expansion of turmoil; failure to include all relevant players risks continued fragmentation of the P5 and UN leadership.
- The current strategic articulation of the United States is considered lacking, with a need to shift from fighting "the last war" and short-term cycles to a perspective considering impacts over the next one, two, five, 10, 15, and 20 years.
- The integration of the US and China into a "rules-based international system" is identified as the core challenge for global stability, with suggestions for frequent high-level meetings during the remainder of the Obama administration.
- Technology is expected to become increasingly destabilizing while simultaneously offering capacity to solve governance issues; harnessing it remains a critical unresolved problem alongside the need to stop foreign funding sources.
- A "paradigm shift" is required in the security apparatus to handle non-state actors holding territory, as traditional police and military tools are ill-equipped to deal with trained fighters utilizing modern weapons.
- The root causes of conflict, including deprivation, lack of income, lack of voice, and unresolved disputes, must be addressed alongside the internet's role in recruitment to prevent the "hearts and minds" message of ISIS from gaining traction among young men.
- Collateral damage from airstrikes in urban areas is predicted to create new problems, while the loss of legitimacy in regimes like Mubarak's is cited as a core driver for the rise of groups like ISIS due to sectarianism.
- A potential "coalition of 200" formed to reinvent the UN is hoped for to solve global violence, with a specific concern raised about the UK losing its permanent UN Security Council seat in favor of EU representation.
- Failure to conclude the Iran deal or address the inflow of fighters and internet recruitment will result in the inability to resolve the crisis, with failing states serving as bases for non-state actors to move into Europe.
- A "militarization of diplomacy" is warned against as a dangerous approach, favoring instead a "hearts and minds" strategy and the "diplomacy of bringing opportunities" over the "diplomacy of the dollar and the power of the army."
- The US and China are seen as essential "disciplining powers" to condition the behavior of other nations; their failure to do so will prevent the conditioning of global behavior toward a rules-based order.
- Specific risks include the fear that the "wrong Miliband" could become UK Prime Minister within "just a few days," potentially altering the strategic direction on these global issues.