Apr 5, 2012, 1:33 AM ETConference Presentation, Keynote

Toby Ord: "In which career can you make the most difference?"

Julian Savulescu introduces Toby Ord, noting that while traditional philosophy often remains abstract, Ord applies analytic philosophy to real-world practical problems, moving away from "irrelevant" meta-ethics toward deciding "what we should do."
Ord argues that moral philosophy is the only area where scientists and philosophers are not merely commentators, but are necessary to determine ethical action.
The central question of the talk is identifying which career allows an individual to make the most difference over their lifetime, given approximately 80,000 hours of working time.
Ord posits that spending roughly 800 hours (1% of one's career) planning career strategy can increase the total value of that career by more than 1%, making it a high-value investment of time.

Oskar Schindler: Served as a baseline for high impact, saving approximately 1,200 lives during the Holocaust.
Alan Turing: Credited with ending World War II one year earlier through code-breaking, potentially saving millions of lives; also a foundational figure in computing.
Bill Gates: Earned approx. $100 billion and has donated $28 billion (aiming for 95% total), significantly influencing the culture of billionaire philanthropy and persuading 68 others to pledge over 50% of their wealth.
Viktor Shibanov: As a Soviet virologist, he proposed the WHO's smallpox eradication program, leading to the elimination of a disease that killed more people in the 20th century than war; estimated to have saved 120 million lives.
Norman Borlaug: Developed dwarf wheat varieties during the "Green Revolution," saving an estimated 245 million lives from starvation; this represents roughly 200,000 times the impact of the Schindler baseline.
Peter Singer: Catalyzed major movements in animal welfare (factory farming) and global poverty ethics, though no specific quantitative life-saving metric is provided for his career.

Ord rejects the "intuitive view" of impact (measuring direct benefits) in favor of the "counterfactual view," which measures the difference between the actual outcome and what would have happened otherwise.
In the "surgeon example," a surgeon with an 80% success rate has a counterfactual impact of only 100 lives saved if their replacement would have had a 70% success rate; conversely, if the replacement would have had a 90% success rate, the surgeon's impact is negative (costing 100 lives).
Replaceability: Careers where others can easily perform the same role have lower counterfactual impact; high-impact careers are those where the specific individual is crucial to the outcome.
- Schindler had high impact because no one else would have saved the Jews he did.
- Turing and Gates had high impact primarily due to non-replaceable donations or timing (e.g., ending WWII a year earlier), not just their inherent replaceability as workers.
- Shibanov's impact is debated but likely significant because smallpox eradication might have been delayed without his specific political leadership.
The core strategy is to "make things happen" rather than "do things," focusing on enabling outcomes that would not otherwise occur.

Professional Philanthropist: Work in finance or law to earn high income specifically to fund high-impact causes, potentially multiplying the value of donations by 100x compared to median interventions.
Impact-Focused Grantmaker: Work for a foundation to allocate millions of pounds to interventions that are 100 times more effective than the median option.
Research Facilitator (Improver): Work for top researchers to handle their low-value tasks (e.g., teaching, admin, mowing lawns), freeing up their time to focus on high-value research.
- Ord suggests this could effectively turn 1% to 50% of an individual's time into the productive time of a super-researcher.
Influencer: Work in policy or advocacy to shift organizations toward funding or adopting high-impact programs (e.g., influencing DFID or government policy).

Researchers: Develop necessary science, math, or ideas (e.g., Turing, Singer).
Influencers: Persuade individuals or organizations to adopt high-impact actions.
Improvers: Increase the efficiency of existing effective organizations or individuals.
Professional Philanthropists: Use career income to fund the highest-impact projects.

Measuring Impact: Ord advises against relying solely on "lives saved" as a metric, encouraging broader measures like quality of life, though he notes that "lives saved" is a convenient shorthand for comparison.
Risk and Uncertainty: Ord advocates maximizing "expected value" (probability multiplied by stakes) rather than being risk-averse, as risk aversion leads to suboptimal aggregate outcomes if adopted by a community.
Opportunity Cost of Facilitation: Replacing a researcher's leisure time (e.g., watching TV) is beneficial, but replacing their actual work time requires careful assessment due to diminishing returns.
Paralysis by Analysis: Ord warns against being paralyzed by uncertainty; he suggests that even rough quantitative estimates (within a factor of two) can reveal differences of thousands of times in impact potential.
Community Support: Ord recommends joining the 80,000 Hours community to avoid forgetting these goals, suggesting that accountability and networking help individuals maintain focus on high-impact career choices.
Bill Gates' Predictability: Ord notes that Gates' success involved significant luck and timing; while individuals can reliably earn $6–10 million in high-impact careers, becoming a billionaire is harder to predict or engineer.