Interview, Podcast
Tomes will tell: books that predict the future
- Host & Format: The Economist's The Intelligence episode, hosted by Rosie Bloor, explores books that illuminate the future, featuring guests Oliver Morton (Planetary Affairs Editor), Shashank Joshi (Defense Editor), and Tom Standage (Editor of World Ahead), alongside listener recommendations.
- Oliver Morton's Focus:
- Discusses Vernor Vinge's 1994 novel Rainbow's End, set in 2025, which anticipates augmented reality, neural control, and AI-driven social interactions.
- Notes the book's plot involves an Alzheimer's patient undergoing rejuvenation therapy, returning to a high school environment to navigate a world of "invisible" digital overlays.
- Observes that while Vinge's specific predictions may not have materialized exactly as written, the novel remains a relevant meditation on ubiquitous computation and social connection.
- Expresses uncertainty about whether the specific technological trajectory in Rainbow's End will occur, though he finds the metaphorical implications regarding memory and aging "thoughtful and moving."
- Longevity & Life Extension:
- Producer Rory introduces Andrew Steele's Ageless, arguing that humans can eventually live to 300 by overcoming senescence, citing biological examples like bowhead whales (200+ years) and naked mole rats (36 years).
- Introduces the concept of the "longevity event horizon," where lifetimes extend by more than a year for every year lived.
- The panel notes a counter-narrative: the "Longevity Event Horizon" requires existing political and economic structures to facilitate technology, which may not be guaranteed despite the technological feasibility.
- Shashank Joshi's Focus (Geopolitics & Nuclear War):
- Recommends Bob Woodward's War and Annie Jacobson's Nuclear War: A Scenario to analyze the 2022 nuclear scare during the Ukraine conflict.
- Details the 2022 event where US intelligence assessed a 50% chance of Putin using tactical nuclear weapons if Russian forces in Kherson were encircled, prompting emergency diplomacy.
- Concludes that nuclear weapons have returned to the forefront of geopolitics, influencing decision-making for NATO leaders, the Biden administration, and Putin.
- Argues that while nuclear use remains a "very unlikely" scenario, the probability has increased compared to five years ago due to the rise of great power conflicts in Ukraine and Asia (specifically regarding Taiwan).
- Highlights that deterrence has held so far (preventing direct NATO-Russia war), but notes the danger of the "desperate" nuclear state as defined by civil servant Michael Quinlan.
- Critiques Jacobson's book for technical errors but praises it for outlining the mechanics of presidential authority, missile defense, and retaliation protocols.
- Listener Recommendations (Optimism vs. Pessimism):
- Optimism: Karis Linis recommends A Psalm for the Wild by Becky Chambers, an optimistic sci-fi novel suggesting that halting the chase for endless goals could lead to a better future for humanity and robots.
- Algorithmic Control: Christian Novotny recommends Quality Land by Marc Uwe Kling, a German satire about a future where algorithms control daily life (e.g., unwanted deliveries, earworm assistants), noting that while comedy is a vital tool for future-thinking, these trends are already emerging.
- Climate Crisis:
- Jessica Peach recommends Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson for its handling of immediate climate response.
- Listener Christy recommends Severance (Ling Ma), Land of Milk and Honey (C. Pam Zhang), and The Broken Earth trilogy (N.K. Jemisin) to explore how environmental scarcity drives human conflict, greed, and injustice.
- Irena Sellet recommends Not the End of the World by Hannah Ritchie, a data-driven non-fiction work arguing that positive trends (e.g., reforestation, food production tech) prove the world is not doomed, projecting a 2060 scenario where the population reaches 10 billion with two degrees of warming mitigated by technology.
- Oliver Morton qualifies Ritchie's optimism, arguing that while the technology exists, political and economic structures must effectively deploy it; he warns against "doomsday" narratives but emphasizes the need for specific action and equity.
- Human Condition & Literature:
- Orbital: Oliver Morton recommends Samantha Harvey's Booker Prize-winning Orbital, set on the International Space Station, arguing it demonstrates that human emotions (love, grief, awe) remain constant regardless of technological advancement.
- The Present in Sci-Fi: Morton counters that Orbital is not strictly "future" fiction but depicts the "recent past" that is already reality for astronauts, illustrating that the future has already arrived for some.
- The Past Illuminating the Future: Charlotte Howard recommends The Heart Is a Lonely Hunter by Carson McCullers (1940s) to analyze current American loneliness and political disorientation, suggesting that the human desire for connection remains a critical variable for future governance.
- Tom Standage's Synthesis: Argues that much science fiction is actually commentary on the present, extending contemporary trends (like imperialism, gender, and AI in Anne Leckie's Ancillary Justice) to their logical extremes to reveal new perspectives.
- Military Speculation Roots: Standage and Joshi note the lineage of sci-fi from military speculation (e.g., The Battle of Dorking), citing Theodore Sturgeon's adage that sci-fi writers aim to prevent future wars by imagining them.
- Current Conflicts: Shashank Joshi notes that modern conflicts like Ukraine are best understood through recent historical analogies (e.g., the Iran-Iraq war) rather than distant sci-fi or WWI, highlighting the difficulty of finding appropriate language for modern warfare.