Tony Blair on the future of liberalism

Historical Context and Retrospective Assessment

• The discussion marks the 175th anniversary of The Economist and the 21st anniversary of New Labour's 1997 election victory.
• Tony Blair identifies three key policy decisions from his tenure that contributed to current societal fractures:
  • The 1998 "intensely relaxed" attitude toward wealth creation, provided taxes were paid.
  • The 2003 decision to enter the Iraq War.
  • The 2004 decision to immediately open labor markets to ten new EU member states, contrary to predictions of 5,000–13,000 migrants, resulting in a 20-fold increase.
• Blair acknowledges that while these policies were driven by liberal economic principles, they failed to address underlying grievances, leading to the financial crisis, polarization, and the rise of populism.
• Blair confirms that liberalism is not dead but must regain political dominance by addressing the root causes of public anger.

Core Pillars for Liberal Renewal

• Addressing Immigration Grievances:
  • Blair argues that ignoring immigration ensures political failure in Europe but emphasizes that controls can be implemented without resorting to prejudice.
  • He asserts that while overall immigration has been positive, integration and adherence to shared values must be strictly enforced.
  • He distinguishes between concerns regarding EU freedom of movement and the more significant anxiety regarding migration from outside Europe.
• Technological Revolution as a Policy Agenda:
  • Blair identifies the failure to debate the impact of the new technological revolution as a critical gap in British politics.
  • He calls for a policy agenda focused on tech, housing (specifically taxing land values), infrastructure, and education.
  • He advocates for mastering technological change to transform education and healthcare positively, rather than focusing solely on job displacement.
• Restoring Optimism and Confidence:
  • Blair cites historical progress data (e.g., lifting more people out of poverty than ever before) to counter contemporary pessimism.
  • He notes that liberal institutions like the EU and NATO have delivered immense prosperity, citing Estonia's average income rising from $30/month to €1,300 since leaving the Soviet Union.
  • He criticizes the shift from a "positive-sum" politics of growth to a "negative-sum" politics of austerity and cuts.

Brexit, Parliament, and Political Strategy

• The Parliamentary Dilemma: Blair identifies a fundamental, unresolved dilemma in Brexit negotiations: staying close to Europe requires adhering to its rules, while leaving the Single Market/Customs Union guarantees economic damage.
• Proposal for Resolution:
  • If Parliament remains paralyzed, Blair suggests the government should return the decision to the public for a second referendum.
  • He believes the Labour Party would gain a significant lead (potentially 20 points) if it rejected the government's deal and called for a public vote, rather than facing a 50/50 scenario.
• EU's Role:
  • Blair argues the EU should offer a package including tightened external borders and rules to prevent wage undercutting by migrants to break the impasse.
  • He maintains that global challenges like migration are European issues and that Britain's influence is maximized only within the EU bloc to counter the rise of China, India, and the US.
• Critique of Populism:
  • Blair warns that if the political landscape divides strictly between the populist left (Jeremy Corbyn) and right (Boris Johnson), the right will likely win.
  • He argues that populism rides anger rather than providing solutions and that liberal politics must engage in "building bridges" with disagreeing groups.

Future of the Centre and Civic Engagement

• The "Centre" in Politics:
  • Blair observes that the political centre currently exists but is unrepresented by mainstream parties, which have moved to the extremes.
  • He cites Emmanuel Macron's victory in France as proof that a socially liberal, centrist agenda can succeed if properly articulated.
• Guidance for Youth:
  • Blair encourages young people to engage in politics through parties, campaigns, and rational dialogue rather than deferring to authority.
  • He advises youth to understand the complexities of governance to counter the "exchange of abuse" prevalent on social media.
  • He notes that while social media amplifies "loudmouths," there remains a public desire for rational argument.

Key Data Points and Decisions

• Migration Statistics: Predictions of 5,000–13,000 migrants from the 10 new EU states were exceeded by a factor of 20.
• Economic Growth: Estonia's average income increased from $30/month (post-Soviet) to €1,300/month.
• Proposed Policy Shifts:
  • Tax land values rather than current taxation models.
  • Implement rules to stop immediate benefit claims by new migrants.
  • Tighten external borders to manage non-EU migration flows.
• Political Prediction: Blair forecasts that without a rational center, the next election could result in a near 50/50 split, preventing decisive governance.
• Cultural Anxieties: Blair explicitly acknowledges that concerns regarding Muslim immigration and the fear of values not being shared are "reasonable" anxieties that must be addressed through integration and rules.