Interview
Tracking US Infrastructure Investing
- Public construction spending is projected to decline naturally as capital allocation shifts away from completed large-scale projects like the Tappan Zee Bridge, despite rising state infrastructure budgets.
- U.S. infrastructure awards are expected to slow significantly off a high base, with trailing 12-month levels remaining flat compared to the mid-teens growth observed in 2018 and 2019.
- Traffic activity is forecast to decrease by approximately 10% in the current year.
- A $30 billion budget gap in the total U.S. public construction budget is anticipated due to reduced usage fees and revenue pressures.
- The speaker's economics and D.C. teams anticipate total stimulus spending of about $100 billion over a three-year period to address the revenue gap.
- The Southwest region's current high activity level, characterized by an 80% increase in infrastructure orders over five years, is unlikely to be replicated in future years.
- The Northeast region is identified as having the lowest infrastructure investment growth over the past five-year period regarding both budget basis and actual highway awards.
- Progress on public-private partnerships is expected to remain limited over the next two years due to a lack of uniform rules and varying state willingness to utilize use fees.
- National public-private partnership investment is projected to stay around $6 billion annually, a figure described as minimal relative to total spending.
- Public construction spending as a share of tax receipts is expected to remain approximately 20% below historical averages despite recent growth.
- Civil engineering groups estimate an ongoing infrastructure investment spending deficit of about $100 billion per year if no additional action is taken.
- Closing the identified spending deficit requires continued revenue increases for infrastructure investment at the state and local levels where capital allocation decisions occur.