Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem

Assassination Attempt on Donald Trump (July 13, Butler, PA)

• The Event: 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks fired eight rounds from an AR-15 at a rally; one bullet grazed Trump's right ear.
  • Casualties: One rally attendee, Corey Comperatore, was killed shielding his family; two others were critically injured.
  • Neutralization: Secret Service counter-snipers killed Crooks 26 seconds after the first shot.
  • Subject Profile: Crooks was a registered Republican with no criminal record or FBI/Secret Service history; he donated $15 to a progressive PAC.
  • Investigative Findings: Crooks used a gaming platform (Steam) to broadcast "July 13 will be my premiere"; he carried a detonation device and an explosive in his car.
• Secret Service Failures and Timeline:
  • Security Gaps: The closest rooftop (130 yards away) was unsecured; the director cited a "sloped surface" as the reason for not stationing snipers, a claim the hosts call a lie given other sloped roofs were covered.
  • Timeline Discrepancies:
    • 5:10 PM: Crooks identified as a Person of Interest (POI).
    • 5:30 PM: Crooks spotted with a rangefinder.
    • 5:52 PM: Secret Service spotted Crooks on the roof.
    • 6:12 PM: First shot fired 10 minutes after the rooftop was identified.
  • Procedural Errors: No agents were stationed at the perimeter fence; security vehicles had to ram the gate to enter.
  • Command Confusion: There was a significant delay in moving Trump to the limousine after the shooting; audio of the sniper's radio chatter has not been released.
  • Leadership Accountability: Secret Service Director Katherine Cheff has refused to resign and has been accused of stonewalling Congressional inquiries.

Political Rhetoric and Instigation Debate

• Chamath Palihapitiya's Stance: Argues the assassination was not solely the result of years of Trump's rhetoric but of a systematic Democratic campaign strategy to "Hitlerize" Trump, which he believes poisoned the shooter's mindset.
  • Specific Criticisms: Cites Democrat rhetoric labeling Trump a "fascist" and a threat to democracy as a direct precursor to violence.
  • Counter-Argument: Jason Calacanis disagrees with the "both sides" framing, noting that while media amplified rhetoric, Democrats have not explicitly called for Biden's death despite his "bullseye" comments.
• RNC Rhetoric:
  • Democratic Actions: Peter Thiel noted Reid Hoffman expressed a wish that Trump be a "martyr" in a private exchange; some individuals outside leadership expressed disappointment the shot missed.
  • Biden's Rhetoric: President Biden stated it was time to put Trump in the "bullseye" days before the shooting, though he clarified he did not mean "crosshairs."
  • Republican Response: J.D. Vance has also referred to Biden as a "threat to democracy," suggesting the blame for inflammatory language is shared.
• Call for Restraint: The hosts urge both parties to issue a joint statement condemning violent rhetoric, noting that mentally unstable individuals may interpret hyperbolic political language literally.

Republican National Convention (RNC) and J.D. Vance VP Selection

• J.D. Vance Profile:
  • Background: 39-year-old former Marine who served in Iraq; author of Hillbilly Elegy.
  • Political Shift: Originally pro-war (Iraq/Afghanistan) but now advocates an "America First" isolationist policy, viewing the Iraq War as a massive mistake.
  • Demographics: Represents a coalition of the "MAGA heartland" (Appalachia) and the tech industry (formerly worked for Peter Thiel at Founders Fund).
  • Speech Highlights: Called the war in Ukraine a "provoked war" initiated by NATO expansion; received applause for attacking "forever wars."
• Convention Atmosphere:
  • Tent Breadth: The hosts describe the RNC tent as the "widest ever," featuring speakers like Amber Rose (feminist/sex worker rights advocate) who criticized the media's portrayal of Trump.
  • Contrarian View: Vance's speech was seen as taking a risk by challenging the neocon establishment within the GOP.
• Forward-Looking Policy Implications:
  • New GOP Vision: Moves away from the "Chamber of Commerce" model toward a populist, labor-friendly, anti-establishment party.
  • Cabinet Trends: Suggests a future administration with a younger cabinet (30s and 40s) compared to the "elder statesmen" model.
• Alternative Candidates:
  • Doug Burgum: Considered but rejected due to his support for Ukraine and potential social policy friction with the base.
  • RFK Jr.: Excluded to avoid policy conflicts regarding health, energy, and agriculture.

Economic and Regulatory Implications

• Trade and Inflation:
  • Freeburg's Concern: J.D. Vance's nationalist/isolationist agenda could lead to higher inflation via tariffs on imports (e.g., goods from China).
  • Retaliation Risk: China could respond with tariffs on US agricultural exports, requiring federal subsidies to support farmers, as seen in the previous Trump term.
  • Strategic Priority: The administration may prioritize onshoring manufacturing and national security over immediate inflationary costs.
• Big Tech Regulation:
  • Lina Khan's Position: J.D. Vance is viewed as a rare Republican supporter of FTC Chair Lina Khan due to her aggressive stance on Big Tech monopolies.
  • Censorship Concerns: Republicans remain opposed to Khan's potential focus on free speech issues and platform censorship of conservative voices.
  • M&A Outlook: A Trump/Vance administration might see more mid-market M&A ($100M-$1B) if regulatory pressure eases, though tech monopolies would still face scrutiny.

Venture Capital and M&A Updates

• Stripe Secondary Sale:
  • Deal Details: Sequoia Capital is offering to buy back $860M in shares from legacy LPs (2009-2012 funds) at $27.50/share, valuing Stripe at $70B.
  • Funding Mechanism: Sequoia is using capital from newer funds (Evergreen/Harbor) to provide liquidity to older funds; GPs are barred from selling carried interest.
  • Industry Significance: Signals a potential end to the private market liquidity drought; Sequoia's legacy funds could see 3,500x returns on seed investments.
  • Governance Questions: The cross-fund liquidity transaction is considered "smelly" by industry standards, though presented as a necessary exit for aging funds.
• Google Acquires Wiz:
  • Deal Value: Google is in advanced talks to acquire Wiz, an Israeli cybersecurity startup, for $23B.
  • Valuation Metrics: Implies a 46x forward revenue multiple; Wiz reached $500M ARR in 4.5 years.
  • Strategic Rationale: Addresses the critical need for cloud security as cloud vendors (AWS, Azure, Google) expand usage without adequate protection protocols.

Political Forecast: Joe Biden's Candidacy

• Biden Withdrawal Odds: Multiple hosts predict Biden will step aside before the Democratic National Convention, citing a "money crisis" where major donors have ceased fundraising.
• Catalysts for Withdrawal:
  • Recent Gaffes: A poor performance in a Lester Holt interview (mixing up Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin) and a disastrous 360 interview with Speedy Mormon.
  • Internal Pressure: Pelosi, Schumer, and Hollywood donors (e.g., Jeffrey Katzenberg) are reportedly advising that his campaign is over.
• Market Reaction: The potential removal of Biden is viewed as a significant positive signal for Democratic fundraising and election viability against Trump.