Trump Vs. Biden: Tech Policy

Core Stance and Rationale

• Strategic Endorsement: The speakers (Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz) publicly endorse Donald Trump over Joe Biden, stating that the "future of America" and "new technology" are literally at stake due to current administrative policies.
• Bipartisan History vs. Current Reality: While the firm has historically supported Democrats (Clinton 1996, Gore 2000, Kerry 2004, Obama 2008, Clinton 2016) and donated to both sides, they argue the current Democratic administration's hostility toward tech represents a fundamental break from past pro-business Democratic traditions.
• Rejection of Anti-Startup Trends: The speakers characterize the current administration's actions as an "unlawful and un-American" assault on innovation, driven by animus toward startups and a desire to centralize control, which they contrast with the "little tech" agenda that relies on distributed innovation.

Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Policy

• Current Administration Actions: The Biden administration, specifically the SEC (Chair Gary Gensler) and FDIC, is accused of using "nefarious means" to crush the crypto industry without clear laws, including:
  • Suing over 30 private crypto companies and issuing Wells notices under a lack of legal guidance.
  • Implementing "Chokepoint 2.0" to debank crypto firms by pressuring commercial banks.
  • Enforcing Regulation S-P 121, which made it impossible for banks to custody crypto assets without assuming liability for market volatility.
• Legislative Interference: The administration vetoed a bipartisan Senate vote to repeal SEC Rule S-P 121, halting industry progress.
• Veto of Innovation: Key technology solutions, such as "Worldcoin" (which verifies human identity without revealing personal data), have been effectively banned in the U.S. due to regulatory hostility, despite global adoption (e.g., Buenos Aires, Malaysia).
• Trump's Platform Contrast: Donald Trump's RNC platform explicitly promises to:
  • End the "unlawful crypto crackdown."
  • Oppose the creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).
  • Defend the right to mine Bitcoin.
  • Ensure Americans have the right to self-custody of digital assets free from government surveillance.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Policy

• Strategic Importance: AI is identified as the "third offset" in military doctrine (following nuclear weapons and maneuver warfare), essential for future economic growth and national security against China.
• Biden Administration Concerns: The speakers criticize the administration's Executive Order for:
  • Imposing an arbitrary computational limit of $10^{26}$ FLOPS, which would effectively enshrine a monopoly for the few companies capable of meeting the threshold.
  • Relying on flawed predictions that only a few "foundation models" will exist, ignoring techniques like "distillation" that allow smaller, efficient models to emerge.
  • Threatening to classify mathematical algorithms (linear algebra, gradient descent) as state secrets, which the speakers argue is impossible to enforce and would destroy the open-source ecosystem.
• Economic Impact: The proposed limits would stifle the "startup ecosystem," preventing the deflationary cost curve of computing power (Moore's Law) from making AI accessible to developers and students.
• Trump's Platform Contrast: Trump's platform pledges to:
  • Repeal the Executive Order hindering AI innovation.
  • Support AI development rooted in "free speech and human flourishing."
  • Reject "radical ideas" regarding the development of the technology.
• Biotech and Rare Disease: The administration is cited for suing a startup that cured a rare disease after it sold its drug to Sanofi, making it impossible to fund rare disease treatments via the traditional VC model.

Tax Policy and Economic Incentives

• Unrealized Capital Gains Tax: The Biden administration's budget proposal includes a 25% annual tax on unrealized capital gains for assets over $100 million in value.
• Destructive Consequences:
  • Startup Viability: The tax forces founders to sell equity or take on debt to pay taxes on paper gains, potentially stripping them of ownership before the company succeeds.
  • Venture Capital Collapse: The proposal would dismantle the VC model, as funds could be wiped out by annual taxes on illiquid, un-realized portfolio gains.
  • California Economy: The speakers warn this would obliterate the California tax base, which derives up to 50% of its revenue from the top 1,000 taxpayers (mostly tech), threatening funding for schools and social services.
• Historical Precedent: The speakers compare the proposed tax structure to the Soviet "kulak" purge, predicting the wealth threshold will inevitably be lowered over time as the tax base shrinks, eventually hitting all successful entrepreneurs and homeowners.

National Defense and Energy

• Defense Industrial Base: The speakers argue the defense sector has become calcified, dominated by large lobbying firms rather than agile startups, hindering the integration of new technologies.
• Energy Policy: The administration is criticized for being hostile to domestic energy (including nuclear), with Germany cited as a "warning sign" of de-industrialization due to energy dependence and lack of domestic production.
• Strategic Need: Energy is described as a core input for AI and defense; a lack of pro-energy policy is framed as a direct threat to U.S. military and technological competitiveness against China.

Context: Assassination Attempt on Donald Trump

• Event Details: The speakers recount the recent assassination attempt on Trump, noting he was shot in the ear/head while at a rally in Pennsylvania.
• Personal Reaction: Andreessen describes the event as a shocking, life-defining moment comparable to the assassination of JFK or the Challenger explosion.
• Character Observation: The speakers highlight Trump's demeanor during and after the attack, specifically his decision to stand up to address the crowd and urge them to "fight" despite the immediate danger, a display of courage they find remarkable for a 78-year-old former president.
• Political Implication: The speakers view the event as reinforcing Trump's unique standing and "different type of cat" leadership style, noting that surviving an assassination attempt requires an outsized strength that is critical for the presidency.

Summary of Policy Comparison

• Biden Administration: Characterized as pursuing a "precautionary principle" approach that stifles innovation, enforces monopolies through regulation, and attempts to control the trajectory of future technology (crypto, AI, biotech) before it matures.
• Trump Administration (Proposed): Characterized as offering a 180-degree turn with clear, pro-innovation platforms that promise to repeal restrictive executive orders, establish clear regulations (like the market structure bill), and prioritize winning the technology race against China.
• Conclusion: The speakers assert that while they personally preferred a pro-business Democratic administration (like the Clinton/Obama era), the current administration's policies are so destructive to the tech ecosystem that Trump is the "right choice" for "little tech" and the future of America.