Ukraine and Russia: what is really going on?

Russian Military Buildup and Strategic Positioning

• By February 2022, Russian forces surrounded Ukraine from three sides: Belarus (north), western Russia (east), and the Crimean Peninsula (south).
• Russia announced plans to withdraw some troops, though Western intelligence confirms the threat of invasion remains active.
• The amassed forces include capabilities for large-scale airstrikes, missile strikes, and rapid insertion of airborne and special forces.

Assessment of Russian Intentions and Putin's Dilemma

• Western intelligence officials remain pessimistic that Vladimir Putin has not yet issued a final order to attack, though they believe an invasion is likely and potentially long-planned.
• Experts suggest Putin faces a political dilemma: backing down after an extraordinary military mobilization could appear weak and foolish, while continuing forward risks significant backlash.
• The Economist's defense editor, Shashank Joshi, characterizes the situation as unlikely to be merely a bluff.

Ukrainian Military Capabilities and Campaign Outlook

• Ukraine is deemed unable to stop a full-scale Russian invasion due to limited air defenses and Russia's superior mobility.
• However, executing a Russian victory for regime change is expected to result in a prolonged campaign with substantial casualties on both sides.
• The conflict raises existential questions regarding Ukraine's survival as an independent and sovereign state.

Potential Impact on Russia

• A major conflict would likely trigger massive economic sanctions, potentially destabilizing the Putin regime by harming elite economic interests.
• Significant Russian casualties could produce a profound destabilizing effect on the Russian political elite and public sentiment, contradicting expectations that no war would occur.
• Military actions would involve bombing "brothers and sisters" (Ukrainians), a narrative likely to erode domestic support.

Economic Implications for the EU and Global Markets

• Europe faces the brunt of sanctions on Russia due to deeply intertwined economies and dependency on Russian energy supplies, particularly gas.
• Unlike 2014, there is now a heightened European willingness to impose severe costs, including the potential shutdown of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
• The United States favors tough sanctions, but European nations will bear the immediate economic impact.

Global Geopolitical Consequences and Allied Credibility

• A Russian invasion could test US credibility with Asian allies, specifically regarding potential Chinese aggression against Taiwan.
• Joshi remains skeptical that a Ukrainian conflict would directly encourage a Chinese attack on Taiwan, citing the substantial difference in US military commitment and the distinct geographic/military stakes of the Pacific region.
• The crisis forces a recalibration of US troop deployments and strategic focus in Europe.

NATO Strategic Shift

• The crisis reinforces NATO's core purpose as territorial defense against Russia rather than counter-terrorism operations.
• NATO is deploying forces to Eastern Europe, including UK and US units.
• Strategic focus is shifting from the Baltic states to Black Sea states (Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Turkey) in anticipation of future conflict dynamics.

Diplomatic Failures and Potential Pathways

• Intense diplomacy involving leaders from the UK, US, Germany, France, and Ukraine has failed thus far due to a fundamental lack of clarity regarding Putin's objectives.
• High mistrust regarding Russian intentions currently hovers over all diplomatic channels.
• Two specific avenues for a diplomatic solution remain:
  • High-level military issues: Potential mutual limits on medium-range missiles, increased transparency in military exercises, and agreements on nuclear bomber flight paths.
  • The Donbass conflict: Potential compromise on granting autonomy to rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine, though immediate resolution is considered unlikely.