Panel, Conference Presentation
Ukraine: Present Perils and Future Prospects | Global Conference 2024
Milken InstituteGideon Rose, Dmitri Alperovitch, Bill Browder, Evelyn Farkas, Ilya Ponomarev, Liev Schreiber
- The conflict outlook anticipates a potential duration of up to 10 years, with a ground stalemate likely persisting for at least six months due to required equipment and training timelines, though this could shift once Ukrainian mobilization laws take effect and new forces are trained over a six-month period.
- Economic and strategic projections include a potential 10-year trajectory where victory depends on breaking the Russian public will via long-range strikes on energy infrastructure, with an embargo on Russian oil potentially ending the war in nine months by raising oil prices to $250 or more.
- Resource allocation is critical, noting that Russia dedicates one-third of its budget to the military and outspends the West on defense weapons at a 10-to-1 ratio, while Ukraine receives approximately $6 billion annually from Black Sea trade and a recent aid package to sustain pensions and social services.
- Political risks involve a high probability of Donald Trump winning the November election and potentially cutting 50% of U.S. funding, which could lead to a Russian victory, whereas a Ukrainian win is deemed certain only if the current stalemate is resolved by defeating "Putinism."
- A peace agreement is viewed as impossible under Vladimir Putin's leadership, who may only seek a ceasefire in his interest, requiring a leadership change to achieve a real resolution beyond a simple armistice.
- Long-term integration forecasts suggest Ukraine could join the European Union within a year if legislation passes and gain access to interest from at least $300 billion in frozen assets, alongside the establishment of self-sustaining local NGOs by the next year.
- Social dynamics in Russia indicate a brain drain of over one million economically active individuals over the last 2.5 years, yet a significant uprising is expected if security forces dissolve and citizens feel safe to mobilize en masse.
- Ukrainian military capabilities are expected to evolve within a year to include significant personnel mobilization, increased munition production, and the ability to strike Russia's economic base without relying on Western long-range weapons.
- The energy grid remains severely degraded by recent strikes, creating an urgent need for counter-strikes on Russian energy infrastructure to inflict pain and alter the strategic balance of the war.
- A scenario where Russia expands into the Baltics or Poland is identified as a high-risk trigger for World War III, emphasizing that the primary issue is not whether Ukraine wins, but the timeline and human cost involved.