Panel
Unbound: Retraining the American Workforce
Milken InstituteCheryl Strauss Einhorn, Arthur Bilger, Allen Blue, Shernaz Daver, Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Jamie Merisotis, Rick Newman, Nan Morrison, Joel Garrison, Bill Gates
- Forecasts indicate that six years post-recession, nearly two-thirds of new jobs will require post-high school learning, with 11.5 million of 11.6 million new jobs created between early 2011 and mid-2012 held by individuals with an associate degree or higher.
- Expectations suggest the higher education monopoly is ending, replaced by a diverse ecosystem of technology-mediated, direct-to-consumer, and workplace-based learning.
- Projections highlight a persistent skills lag where the nine-year skills turnover cycle exceeds the eight-to-nine-year timeframe required for skills to enter and exit the O-Net database, exacerbated by an unprecedented "Slope of the Curve" in job and skill changes.
- Concerns are raised that historically underserved populations, specifically people of color, low-income individuals, and first-generation immigrants, risk being left behind without targeted intervention.
- Predictions regarding employer incentives suggest a lack of motivation for continuous worker training due to rapid automation, as robots may replace employees before training investments yield returns.
- Specific pilot programs like "Skillful" in Denver and Phoenix aim to solve information gaps by having employers interview candidates who pass specific training, a practice previously unavailable in quick feedback loops.
- Udacity forecasts its nanodegree program, currently serving 25,000 participants including 7,000 in self-driving cars, will enable job acquisition and promotions, with 50 employers like BMW, Amazon, and Google willing to fast-track graduates.
- AT&T is projected to upskill over half its workforce rather than firing employees, while Reno, Nevada is expected to showcase models that reduced unemployment from 15% to 4% through intensive online and in-person training.
- Future expansion plans include replicating local training models in Columbus, Ohio, Utah, Colorado, North Carolina, and Rhode Island, alongside a strategy to spread awareness to 325 million people within 10 years.
- Demographic shifts are expected to drive growth in home health care and data analytics over the next decade, potentially reducing marketing departments from 10 to two roles while increasing demand for data skills.
- A massive structural unemployment issue is predicted for the next decade due to globalization, technology, longevity, and education deficits, creating uncertainty about whether all willing workers will secure employment.
- Solutions are expected to be local and networked, involving partnerships among corporations, non-profits, academic entities, and local governments, including military-veteran retraining programs that prepare soldiers for civilian careers 6 to 12 months prior to discharge.
- Concerns regarding social stability include the rapid pace of labor market changes, which may necessitate discussions on universal basic income, though some experts view such conversations as a red herring that undervalues human work.
- Data indicates 16% of white working-age males are unemployed, underemployed, or have left the workforce, a trend correlated with declining life expectancy and a need for purpose-driven employment.
- Future labor markets are predicted to prioritize merit and coding ability over academic credentials, with a potential shift away from human-centric jobs in agriculture similar to the drop from 80% in the 1900s to 3% by the 1950s.
- Policy interventions may include corporate tax structures incentivizing human hiring over automation, government support for individuals taking six months off for learning, and political consensus on education and retraining.
- Lifelong learning is deemed necessary as the belief that learning ends at age 22 becomes obsolete due to increased longevity and the insufficiency of Social Security to cover extended work lives.
- Rapid technological disruption across health, transportation, and government sectors is expected to drive continuous learning, exemplified by Level 4 autonomous vehicles reducing components from 20,000 to a fraction of that number.
- Personal interventions, such as professional photography sessions, are proposed to boost confidence and job placement for older workers who may be more fearful of job changes than younger counterparts.
- The economic trajectory is expected to move toward a "proven economy" where specific skills validate employment, acknowledging that while some jobs will disappear, the future of work remains difficult to predict with accuracy.