Panel, Conference Presentation
Venezuela Forward: Institutions, Trust, and the Path to Prosperity | Global Conference 2026
- Former Colombian President Ivan Duque identifies the removal of Nicolás Maduro and the prosecution of the current regime via the International Criminal Court as the mandatory starting point for Venezuela's recovery.
- Duque outlines a U.S.-led three-stage roadmap comprising stabilization, economic transformation/reform, and a final transition to democracy.
- The former president argues that economic reconstruction must precede political transition, requiring U.S. guarantees of rule of law to secure long-term investment, as current Venezuelan institutions cannot enforce contracts.
- Duque asserts that institutional reform, including a constitutional overhaul, judicial modernization, and potential dollarization, is essential to generate long-term trust before free elections can be held.
- He identifies Delcy Rodríguez's administration as a "housekeeper for the U.S." currently controlling the economic apparatus while noting hundreds of political prisoners remain incarcerated.
- Duque warns against falling into a "comfort zone" of partial stability and calls for a U.S. bipartisan, bicameral, long-term state policy to ensure the roadmap is not abandoned.
- Regarding economic potential, Duque cites Venezuela's 1.5 million barrel/day oil production capability (projected by year-end with Exxon and Chevron), over 20 million hectares of arable land, and significant mining reserves for energy transition.
- Investor Gabriel Puig emphasizes that Venezuela's GDP has collapsed from a 300% premium over Colombia's in the 1970s (when it held triple-A ratings) to the current $80 billion, with infrastructure decimated over 27 years.
- Puig notes a shift in oil production from 800,000 barrels under previous arrangements to 3.5 million at peak, with recent ramp-ups to 1.2 million barrels as Chinese influence is reduced.
- Geopark's investment strategy focuses on the first 500,000 barrels of oil, requiring approximately $5 billion in capital expenditure, whereas the next million barrels would require $50 billion.
- Puig contrasts the potential "Poland scenario" of total democratic transition with the risk of a "Belarus/Kazakhstan scenario" where the economy functions under an authoritarian regime with opaque government-corporate deals.
- He argues that U.S. companies are already engaging with authoritarian regimes globally (e.g., China, UAE) and that separating legitimate government contracts from corruption is necessary for economic viability.
- Entrepreneur Andrés Torres (Open English) recounts a personal experience where revenue evaporated due to a 1 million percent currency devaluation, forcing the relocation of 500 employees and the exit from the Venezuelan market.
- Torres contends that democracy is a prerequisite for the return of high-skill diaspora talent, who will not return without guarantees of rule of law, property rights, and institutional stability.
- New Venezuelan entrepreneurs face three immediate structural barriers: the inability to obtain centralized credit, a suffocating regulatory framework requiring five months to register a company, and critical infrastructure deficits in power and connectivity.
- Torres highlights a necessary societal mindset shift from "survival mode" to "ownership and growth," which is currently impossible under the existing corrupt management team.
- Gabriel Puig notes that while expectations are high, the primary risk to democracy is "time," as the current regime may use increased revenue from oil and business to wait out political pressure until the U.S. focus shifts.
- Ivan Duque acknowledges that while Colombia's current government faces fiscal deficits and inflation, the long-term economic integration of a free-market Venezuela with Colombia could create one of the strongest economies in the Western Hemisphere.
- Duque advocates for a "reconciliation at the base level" for the general population but maintains that individuals committing crimes against humanity cannot receive amnesty, though sentence reductions are possible.
- The panel collectively identifies that the U.S. role is critical in enforcing a timeline for elections and independent institutions to prevent the current "interim housekeeping" regime from entrenching itself.
- Puig predicts a regional economic re-rating driven by potential right-wing victories in Colombia, Peru (favoring Keiko Fujimori), and Argentina, creating a decade of unprecedented growth for Latin America.
- Andrés Torres concludes that without a clear timeline for democratic elections and the flow of capital, the initial euphoria of Maduro's removal could dissolve into social unrest and a loss of hope among the Venezuelan people.