Panel
Venture Capital 20/20: Trends to Expect in the Years Ahead
Milken InstituteCourt Coursey, B. Bonin Bough, Nikhil Kalghatgi, Kay Koplovitz, Dave McClure, Mehmet Oz
- Venture capital sourcing is expected to remain dominated by successful, experienced founders, while the market anticipates a shift from IPO-driven late-stage capital to private capital and corporate R&D budgets outsourcing risk to M&A and venture.
- Global expansion trends predict capital flowing into Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa across 60 countries, with specific regional growth anticipated in Atlanta, Nashville, and markets outside Silicon Valley like New York and Los Angeles.
- Healthcare outlooks foresee AI and machine learning transforming treatment delivery and cost transparency within 18 to 24 months, alongside specific predictions that the Curemark autism treatment will launch in 2018 and mental health and longevity will drive massive investment over the next 20 years.
- Technological advancements include neuron-level communication enabling instant skill acquisition within hours over the next 20 years, and the embedding of augmented reality in industry and internet video transmission within five years, though AR/VR currently lacks clear business models and distribution channels.
- Sector-specific plans include scaling mom-and-pop businesses using lessons from billion-dollar entities, revitalizing neighborhoods through models used for bagel stores, and a projected M&A environment in food and beverage driven by nutritional shifts, alongside disruptions in the beauty industry via social media and tech.
- Investment risks and market dynamics involve a potential split between "haves" and "have-nots" funds following the proliferation of 480 new seed funds over five years, the failure of some subscription e-commerce businesses, and the difficulty of creating affordable healthcare legislation despite legislative initiatives.
- Demographic and economic shifts anticipate a decrease in U.S. immigrant entrepreneurs causing a brain drain that may benefit home countries like India and China, while a verticalized home-building company using 3,000 parts or fewer could reach a $100 billion valuation in the next few years.
- Performance expectations for venture returns cite finding 50 to 100x outliers approximately 2% of the time and $100 million outcomes (20x returns) about 5% to 7% of the time, with sustainability identified as a necessary but difficult investment thesis.
- Future workforce and society models predict that at least one-third of the population may not need to work 20 years from now, potentially eliminating the need for universal basic income as technology allows instant skill learning, with 80% of people managing their own care while 20% require a paternalistic system.
- Regional business opportunities highlight the merging of beauty and health, the dominance of messaging platforms for non-email generations, and the specific potential in Japan for a wholesale SaaS switch from printed emails to digital systems.