Interview, Fireside Chat
“Very high risk” Trump will escalate Iran war after midterms | The Economist
- A very high risk of kinetic attack escalation on Iran is expected immediately following the U.S. midterm elections, driven by Benjamin Netanyahu's potential desire to resolve unfinished nuclear issues and delay Israeli coalition talks, with speculation of a possible joint U.S.-Israel operation.
- Despite no identified individual in the Trump administration expressing enthusiasm for a major war resumption, there is a prevailing prediction that a significant conflict will occur, as Congress cannot legally prevent the president from reigniting hostilities regardless of the election outcome.
- Political attention is forecast to focus almost exclusively on Iran among global crises post-election, while internal administration debates center on whether to escalate in a spike or slowly choke off oil to use the remaining two years of the term effectively.
- Oil prices are projected to reach $120 per barrel due to post-midterm action speculation, with potential for further increases if China fails to buffer markets using depleted reserves and if an Iranian oil blockade impacts U.S. Navy readiness by one month of impact per month.
- Economic pressures such as a sharp rise in oil prices may deter President Trump, who is sensitive to market crashes and fears being compared to Herbert Hoover, even as he predicts an Iranian economic crisis and the choking off of Hormuz oil flow.
- Gulf nations express fury over potential strikes with unclear logic, noting that entities like Qatar are shipping only 5% of pre-war LNG and gas levels, while Qataris warn Iran that a Trump defeat in Congress is not in their interest given his continued control of foreign policy.
- Iran is estimated to be depleting oil stored on water in Asia and intends to withhold concessions before the midterms to support a Republican defeat, whereas Israeli calculations view the conflict as unfinished business with capabilities remaining buried despite prior damage to the nuclear program.
- Significant risks include a return to kinetic activity with no obvious end game, the possibility of Netanyahu using renewed conflict to form a unity government, and the potential for instability in the Gulf that threatens American bases.