Interview, Other
Vote! Our election-day special
- Decisions made in the upcoming election are predicted to determine the fate of the nation and the world for decades, with significant implications for the global economy, trade, currency markets, immigration flows, and climate change.
- Security preparations are expected to intensify around the White House and Naval Observatory, including measures like security guards wearing flak jackets and workers receiving panic buttons, while businesses in downtown areas may board up in anticipation of disorder.
- The most likely path for a Kamala Harris victory involves securing Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania to reach the required 270 electoral college votes, with Pennsylvania identified as the critical tipping point state.
- The most probable pathway for a Donald Trump victory requires winning Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, potentially supported by known Republican leanings in other states to reach 270 electoral votes.
- Pennsylvania counties, specifically Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Bucks County, Luzerne County, and Erie County, are expected to receive special attention in the coming days, with some experts suggesting that winning Michigan by two or three points strongly correlates with victories in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
- The outcome is projected to be definitive by at least Wednesday, with networks potentially unable to call races for several days if Donald Trump wins due to anticipated legal challenges, though the process is not expected to escalate to mass disorder or a seriously disrupted electoral count.
- If Donald Trump wins freely and fairly, talk of a stolen election may dissipate, but if he loses, he is predicted to attempt to overturn the result through every available legal and extra-legal means, though court challenges are expected to be unsuccessful.
- The Senate is forecast to be quite likely to flip, with Democrats guaranteed to lose their seat in West Virginia to a 50-50 split and Jon Tester likely to lose in Montana, while the House race is slightly favored for Democrats by forecast models.
- Voter sentiment indicates concerns over inflation and a negative view of the economy despite growth rates, while Republicans emphasize immigration as a top issue and Democrats focus on abortion rights, with women's rights expected to be the primary driver for the Senate.
- Global trade pressures are expected on Canada and Mexico regardless of the winner, with Donald Trump promising tariffs on countries with trade surpluses with the US and a dramatic escalation of the trade war with China, while Kamala Harris vows to protect American jobs from unfair foreign competition.
- International leaders and scholars view Kamala Harris as a safer short-term bet for the Chinese economy, whereas Chinese long-term strategists hope a Trump victory will divide the Western world and weaken defense alliances, while India is expected to be courted by either candidate as a hedge against China.
- Donald Trump is predicted to declare victory on election night and potentially end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, though Ukraine fears this involves accepting harsh peace terms and European governments worry Putin might test NATO resolve, while J.D. Vance is expected to represent a further end of the isolationist spectrum.
- Serious rule of law questions are raised regarding plans to undo the Justice Department's independence, pardon January 6th convicts, and end legal proceedings against the former president, while a majority of Republicans continue to believe the previous election was stolen.
- Turnout may be influenced by voter burnout, with the party winning the presidency expected to also command the House, creating a scenario where the executive and legislative branches are aligned, similar to the presidential outcome.