Interview, Conference Presentation
Wall of duties: Trump’s towering tariffs
- The National Army may decide to halt the Sudan conflict or expand operations into Darfur, potentially entering negotiations with the RSF if foreign backers pressure for a deal involving recognition of an army-led Khartoum government and reconstruction funding; however, groups within the coalition may push for an offensive that risks splintering alliances, stretching supply lines, and fighting on RSF home turf, with General Burhan's 20-year-old experience suggesting significant danger.
- Despite claims, the RSF does not appear ready for peace talks while continuing to receive weapons and supplies from neighboring countries within the UAE sphere of influence, meaning the recapture of Khartoum marks a turning point that will lead to a new, protracted phase of conflict rather than an immediate end.
- A US legislative "bill" including major tax cuts and incentives returning reliance to tariff revenues is expected, though the odds of a US recession this year are projected to rise from a previous Goldman Sachs estimate of 30% as a steep tariff wall persists for the remainder of Donald Trump's term.
- Tariff policies are predicted to shield domestic businesses but reduce incentives for competition and innovation, undermining America's status as the world's most innovative economy, while simultaneously causing inflation spikes, raising household costs via higher taxes on goods, and necessitating complex bureaucratic enforcement without existing infrastructure.
- The removal of the $800 de minimis exemption will drastically impact e-commerce shipments from firms like Shein and Temu, while individual tariff negotiations, such as potential China relief for TikTok sales, may occur over the next few days or weeks to address high reciprocal tariffs and domestic consumption needs.
- Donald Trump's tariff approach is characterized as based on non-calculated figures rather than empirical evidence, prioritizing manufacturing jobs over the interests of 300 million consumers and potentially using high tax rates as leverage for deals, which may result in a poorer, more unequal US.
- The current risk-averse landscape for broadcasters and streamers, driven by parsimony following the pandemic and Hollywood strikes, makes it difficult for emerging talent to secure production deals comparable to Shonda Rhimes's "world building" model or the opportunities she received when entering network TV.
- While Shonda Rhimes's status as a leading streaming creator remains assured for the foreseeable future, the industry's unwillingness to take risks on junior or young writers creates a significant barrier to the emergence of the next comparable talent.